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19
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4:30am BoE Minutes
8:30am Earnings Before the Open: BJ, EV, LDK, MENT, ROST, TSL, TWB.
8:30am Oct CPI (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 4.9%; ex food & energy last m/m 0.1%, y/y 2.5%)
8:30am Oct Housing Starts (last 817K), Oct Building Permits (last 805K)
9:00am Fed’s Kohn speaks on asset prices at conference.
10:35am Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
1:30pm Fed’s Lacker speaks on the subprime crisis at conference.
2:00pm FOMC Minutes
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: CYBX, DBRN, EGLT, GYMB, HOTT, INTU, LTD, LDG, MW, PETM, PLNR, SMTC, TK, WGOV.
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Look at the lack of volume on this ES 1m upswing.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
A massive buy program should spark anytime now. It will scare the shorts and drive prices wildly higher into Thursday where the rally continues until Option-x at 3pm EST, the crater Friday and next week to newlows.
Or not.
We should have had this action yesterday. That silly rally skewed due to Anheuser. Let’s see a take out of the 817 first before we look bullish. We are just 10 pts away. An undercut with a huge volume reversal would make me lean towards the bull. But no just yet. I’ve been wrong before and it won’t be the 1st time.
Volume is lame on this bounce.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Thanks, that’s exactly what has kept me from going long so far. No volume on this bounce.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
volume was even more lame on the most recent decline to todays intraday low… not what your looking for during capitulation.
Train is coming boys… Thank you CNBC for the early warning!
I think we are going to have to wait for a rally till after the people on the fence lose faith in the rally and go short cuasing a big run down with big volume. Thats the only thing I think can wake up the bulls.
No one seems to be ‘buying’ the rally and all we need is 1 or 2 more false starts to crack 825 I think. I won’t go long till we see 800 or less on big down volume. If I miss the run up then so be it but without confirmation all I see is people getting whipsawed by the MM’s.
Looks like it is about time PPT has to roll up the sleeves. Usually PPT sends message through CNBS circa 3 PM. Let us see
I am almost panicking out of my position.. but it’s very hard to break such insane levels without a substantial rally to get the bulls in to the stock market to begin with…. I still think we’ll see a rally, but if the FOMC minutes at 2 pm is really negative, we can break the triangle and start moving down big time.. so watch out.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Discount rate is already at 1% What else can they say in the minutes that will move the market? I think FOMC minutes are irrelevant at this time.
Watching the 833 level (23.6 Fib) and TICK, which has been flashing crazy buy yet. Vol still weak.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
ops 78.6% from the recent top, not 23.6.
Double top on the VIX?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Yup. Let’s light this candle! (at least until the close!)
someone expecting a 2pm reversal?
November 19th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
The options crowd needs to spark it today to get a drive into Thursday. They will have to manufacturing some news to go along with it too. What will it be this time?
I’ve a 1pm meeting. Crappola…guys keep the bear pressure down. I’ll check back in 30mins;
I’m with Idian – FOMC 2:00 minutes will be a possible catalyst one way or the other. I have a small SSO entry in the chamber. Finger on the trigger. Tha can be changed to SDS in an instant.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
How about S O S ?
November 19th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
The rally in ES to 835 was just short covering just before the minutes were released. I don’t expect any type of comeback today for the market.
2nd approach to the 825 support line. could be another bounce.
Schweizer135 – I was looking at URE at 5.63 and I thought it looked good there. Just getting better. Might get a 1 bagger out of that one if things work out. Not in yet.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Yeah, I’m just in light at this point. Wainting for the daily push.
The fact that this market hasn’t started puking everywhere says something
ES 1m forming a descending triangle that should lead to continuation down.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Wouldn’t it be a reversal?
Volume sucks.
3rd approach. bounce or break?
November 19th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I think they are sucking up inventory for the push.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
What do you mean? Up / Down?
I’m getting a little excited just a little more umph and we can crack this support and find a place to rally from for real.
Anyone ever heard of the Event Horizon? This is the very edge of a supermassive black hole.
We are there.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Gets the blood pumping doesn’t it ?
November 19th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
actually it’s a lot like watching a fish out of water gasp for breath , kinda sad in a way.
X on 52 wk low for the 4th time today. If it’s support gets snapped I think we can make 800-770 today.
ES new low today
November 19th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
VIX has set new high.
Is 825 is the new 840? VIX just made a new intraday high 73.41.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Neg divergence on 10m $VIX MACD and CCI. This may be a top for it.
Been in a descending 12 point channel for the past 4 hours. Lower break is 820, upper break is 832.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Volume increasing on this small push up.
Vix getting ready to turn a little. Small rising wedge on 1m. Should turn it a little.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Good eyes man! Promising.
We’re getting ready to turn. Be patient.
bear penant?
rule of 4?
X setting new 52 wk lows here we go
ES 1m new low and forming an intraday channel down, Here comes 816.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Kenny’s charts say breach of 818.69 confirms we’re in 3 5 (3).
fwiw.
ES just produced the biggest candle of the day
November 19th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
on 5 min ES high volume doji
November 19th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
What a joke of a result – a tiny doji?
VIX is actually trying to break out the top of a rising wedge. Unbelieveable.
actually I would draw the penant with the first drop being the huge drop 860 to 830. then up to 840 and down to 825. up to 836…and on its way down on 5….but i could be wrong…
828 is a minor trendline for the recent decline
Greenie?
VIX puking out of the end of the rising wedge. What a call – at least short term.
Anybody betting on the last hour rally?
Going long if the day-long channel breaks out. That should be at ES 832 or so.
i would be careful to get in until it breaks at least 840.
I’m long TNA white knuckled now.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Also bought a little TNA a few hours ago, Feeling a little better but swings are wild.
GO LONG
November 19th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Yes just did at 830. Going to leave a stop just below todays low at 818.
I just went long URE and SSO.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Are you nuts??? I just sold my URE!!!!!
(kidding)
lol
840 Daily VWAP….watch that level
November 19th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
I don’t think the bears are going to hand the bulls this test of the lows on a silver platter.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
That said…840 I close my remaining shorts and start to nibble on the long side.
WOOOO Run like you stole sumthin!
November 19th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
If it breaks 840 I will add to my longs…vol needs to pick up
I think it is a bull trap. No reason to justify any rally.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
yeah mean bear trap?
November 19th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
It could be both. forcing bears to cover and suck more longs in.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Maybe it is, but it’s all about risk/reward. Buy with a stop just below today’s low and hope the rally continues. Risking 12 handles to make 50 if we rally.
Pete
yeah, i don’t see enough volume, it might not make it to 840…
November 19th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
It’s early. The program will kick in.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
You thinking a rally in the works? Call me the perma-bear, but I don’t see this. 840-842
I’ll look to close my shorts. But till then, I’m riding this sukcer down.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Just through Thursday, but there is a lot of resistance. $VIX 10m and 60m indicators have divergences that need to recycle.
Boy oh boy oh boy….
1) You’ve got money managers seeking safety in bonds…
2) You’ve got big brokerage houses doing all they can to hold up support on equities
Wait for the bounce up to short if you want to play safe.
Idan – What’s your take right now?
No confirmation on break above 832 top of declining channel. Low volume. It aint happening yet.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Two doji’s in a row at 832 on 5 min ES. Battle at the top of the channel.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
jerry, it’s really hard to tell with all the manipulation. There is no free markets left anymore, bail me out please.
90% long…buying time.
My stops are tight. Just feels good to be back in the game right now. I think betting on a rally off of the bottom is worth the slight risk I have out there. Still a big bear expecting the worst. Glad to have a few days experience at th bottom to prepare me for the real thing.