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19
Nov
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4:30am BoE Minutes
8:30am Earnings Before the Open: BJ, EV, LDK, MENT, ROST, TSL, TWB.
8:30am Oct CPI (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 4.9%; ex food & energy last m/m 0.1%, y/y 2.5%)
8:30am Oct Housing Starts (last 817K), Oct Building Permits (last 805K)
9:00am Fed’s Kohn speaks on asset prices at conference.
10:35am Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
1:30pm Fed’s Lacker speaks on the subprime crisis at conference.
2:00pm FOMC Minutes
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: CYBX, DBRN, EGLT, GYMB, HOTT, INTU, LTD, LDG, MW, PETM, PLNR, SMTC, TK, WGOV.
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I don’t see the light volume you guys are talking about.
This is huge volume on the downside…I don’t think there’s gonna be a whipsaw Wednesday today. Too many are betting on OpEx rally.
Credit crisis is spreading rapidly and there’s no end in sight. At some point, fundalmentals take over TA. This is the time…the whole world is on the verge of bankruptcy!!!
November 19th, 2008 at 11:48 am
We are all with you 100%. We are not of the opinion that this will be the big drop. that will come ina week or two. We want the rally now. That’s all.
Another crack lower …..
826 stops or pauses i hope – gr has 823-825.
Excuse me but when I called the double top at 10:14, why did I not short it? Too much bounce mentality. When I can’t take it any more and as soon as I enter a short position this thing will turn. Would you like for me to enter one now to get this turned around?
November 19th, 2008 at 11:55 am
You’re a good chart reader. Trust yourself before you trust others.
ES making a move. At this time I’m guessing it will form a bear flag.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Not much punch behind it. A girly move.
It seems too close for comfort. That we thread lower all day (just like yesterday) and we don’t take out the lows? We see a bounce till 61.8 Fib ~ 841 and then possibly lower?
November 19th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
848 retrace (20 and 50ma nonAH 10m) is possible if it happens.
Recall my above post:
———————————–
Meanwhile, the 30-year swap spread was stuck in negative
territory, following Thursday’s poor $10 billion 30-year
Treasury bond auction, they said.
Thirty-year spread was last quoted minus 15.50 basis points
after hitting a record low of minus 20.00 basis points. It
finished at minus 11.25 basis points on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN1453660620081114
—————————————–
I asked somebody who is knowledgeable about this news. He doesn’t know what it means. But, he thought that JPM, a big beneficiary of the boom in interest rate swaps is acting weird. In fact, it just set a new intraday 52-week low (taking our July 15 low).
Quoting that guy:
“so we are seeing weird stuff in rates swaps. Those might blow up next. Weird stuff is in every market.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84691486009”
Draw your own conclusions.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Scary!! Thanks.
Possible daytrade opportunity. APOL
A close below 67.60 on 5 min chart, it could lose 4 buck in a hurry. Do your own due diligence. I don’t give any refunds on lost trades.
Full disclosure: I own a ton of Nov puts on this turkey.
Let’s see some capitulation today. S&P to 770 in one swift move, then brew up a monster rally.
As long as I’m dreaming, I’d also like a Ferrari.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
How about a Ford?
My indicators are flashing another drop today.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Good, as long as you don’t flash us via a web-cam.
Man….it will take some serious kahones to buy here on the hopes of a TA (inverted head and shoulders) bounce. So much downward pressure. Options expriation may be one of the only reasons we are holding….a lot of puts being sold…then using the proceeds to buy the stocks. I’m just not sure how long they can hold on…..
November 19th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
You are the “official” contrarian to this board. If you don’t have the cohones, who will? eh?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Sorry, I misread your name as Dan.
OK – VIX did form a bull flag on the way up and we’ve now stopped at 826. Not sure what my next call will be at this point. Buyers are not anywhere to be found.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Looks like Tony C’s call may not pan out. We may hitting GannFan’s 1st support at 825. Will it Hold? I am currently in Cash except for a small position of UNG. I think we may see a nice draw tommorrow when NatGas numbers come out.
Ladies and gentlemen,
The 10-year yields down another 4% today. Stongest of all the banks, JPM just set a new 52 week low. BAC is in the crapper. SKF is at all time high.
Me thinks that this ain’t gonna be an ordinary sell off.
10 yr bond yield @33.93 down 4%
30 yr bond yield @39.92 down 3.7%
November 19th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
those are $TNX and $TYX.
If ANY good news came out right now, we’d rally 75pts on the S&P in one day. I’m just too nervous of being short right now. The trend is your friend, but the highest probability of a profitable swing trade right now is on the long side. Does anyone really think that we won’t see 900+ on the S&P again soon?
November 19th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
that is why you use stops. i added at 835 with a stop at 840. i cant get that hurt. but i wont miss out on a move to 800 either.
we will see 920 this week…going short now is retarded…its like Laying 2000 to win 100 on a basketball game…risk/reward is crap
November 19th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
That is why i have not been short. If we cross the mendoza line though it may well be worth the rewards.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
So what are you long on / at ?
Oh mama. I don’t know what to call below the lows here. We go into the abyss. I thought we’d test the lows today of pull off a fakeout below then rally. Let’s see if it happens. If there is a rally, it won’t take us past 866 on the ES. VIX is within 1pt of the high yesterday. I don’t like the feel of this. Now I am thanking God for the lack of volume. This is scarry down here.
816, 809ish then the almighty blue channel at 800ish. there is a black trendline I will bring back from the past if necessary that might come back into play if this gets ugly.
does any one see buy volume coming ?
November 19th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
NOPE
Kind of like the train coming down the tracks. You see it coming clearly. How far away is it? You begin to guess and ponder. Then all of a suden you realize it is right on top of you and you better get the hell out of the way.
WOOOOOO WOOOOOO chugga chugga WOOOOOOO WOOOOOO
The train is a comin.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
You mean the SRS Train?
unless bears push hard, there could be a trend reversal soon.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Agree. I still see the financials sliding. C at $7.29 now.
I THINK I FOUND THE KEY!
VIX is forming a rising wedge. go to the low at 44.25 and look to the right. There it is! BAM!
Another failed bull pattern when the H&S crapped out. If this thing breaks the upper trendline that will mark capitulation time. If not it will peter out and fall back. Any rallies will be contained in the wedge.
BRILLIANT!
Pic in a minute.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Daily MACD bullish cross and a rising RSI means …..
November 19th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
If we fall out of the rising wedge on the VIX I’ll be pissed.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
ES 1m is forming an inverted H&S that will fail! That is what your MACH bullis cross means. HA! Take that.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/vix-rising-wedge-reversal
Any comments?
November 19th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
H+S intraday is what I see…take that for what it’s worth…
November 19th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
See my note above. Bull patterns are failing all around us.
TRAP TRAP TRAP TRAP.
you may be right, but I would not swing it.
Brush up on your rising wedge here
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:rising_wedge_reversa
Now we see it. Let’s make some $$$$$$$$$$.
I’d speculate it is safe to stay short at this time.
A double bottom forming on the spy?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I see that too…SPY wasnt able to take out yesterdays lows. I am lonq now …
November 19th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Those were my exact thoughts. I notice RSI and MACD rise as it was falling and approaching yesterdays lows. Good luck.
Yen crosses coming off there lows now. We could get a small pop higher here in ES in the nearterm.
Pete
Bottom is in for today.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
You think so?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Pretty sure. 10m charts tell all.
I’m now long URE.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Schweizer,
do you use 10min charts for your trades exit & entry points. What type of EMA/MA r us using on the 10min
inverse H+S forming in the past 2 hours
November 19th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Could be… but is it part of a much bigger head and shoulders…
November 19th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
volume is HORRIBLE. might retest support and even break if volume remains like this…
God I hate visiting the bottom. I’m thinking of trying a long here as well.
Just to prove I am not crazy – from my first post of the day – “I’m hoping for a fakeout low and then a rally. Buyers have to come in or else.”
Let’s find some buyers. I’m not long – yet and may miss it.
SPX trend change confirmed according to 15min 8ma rule
November 19th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Sure would like to see some volume though. Rather odd.
I do think that we might get a late day rally by shorts who cover when they realize we are not breaking down today either! (similar to yesterday).
Does anyone know where the 2day VWAP is right now?
ES is a big bear flag.
Man, look at it drop, like a stone.
Most of main European indices are down 4% or more.
Financials are showing some relative strength just now. At least compared to the past few days.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
I’d like to see them show strength, but I am not seeing that:
C down 12%
BAC down 10%
GS below 60
November 19th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Haha no kidding, but I was talking about how they were acting from 1:00-1:15. They were holding steady while the market was coming back down.
$FVX, $TNX and $TYX all down more than 4%
November 19th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Yeah… treasuries are really rallying big. This may be trouble for stocks
November 19th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Do’t look now. TNX is down more than 5% at the last check.
VIX in bull flag – meaning it will continue trend up I think.
SPX trend back to the down side per 15min/8ma rule. close to 825 support level. expect bounce there.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Yup, fooled me a bit. Perhaps a retest of yesterday. I’ll be watching volume.
OOOHHHHHHHHH!
It is time for the egg to crack
Holy Shit Batman.
Guys, I don’t think today’s low will be met with a bounce like yesterday.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27789631/site/14081545
Traders are expecting a modest, roughly $4.5 billion buy program near the close. Why?
Anheuser-Busch is coming out of the S&P 500 (bye-bye old friend! It will no longer be traded at the NYSE; InBev trades in Brussels). The market cap of Anheuser-Busch is about $50 billion. Therefore, $50 billion will be disbursed to the shareholders
It did pan out. Don’t see that happening today. No rescue in the works to save the S&P.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Seems every rally has been met been fierce selling. I way to trade is to be short with tight stops to the upside. Longs are being burnt again and again and again. I don’t believe Tony C. in that we are going to 960 soon. I just don’t see how that can happen.
Pete
I’m so happy to have my support group with me here today. I need a hug or for someone to hold my hand right now.
Hey Val – I bot buck/stock fever right now.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
ha… I wish Craig was here. I’m scared.
You’d think the volume would be massive. Careful shorting here.
CNBC Bearish as Hell… Might be a bottom
Pattern looks similar to yesterday so far.
I am calling that drop a bottom… CNBC quoted “This is a sellers market”… always do the opposite.
Schweizer,
do you use 10min charts for your trades exit & entry points. What type of EMA/MA are you using on the 10min.
Help us understand your trading strategy using the 10min charts. TIA.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Not now. I may blog on it sometime. It is not that hard.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
WOuld really appreciate it….sooner the better.
thanks.
Is anyone opening a long position right here? With a tight stop seems like risk/reward is good. Comments?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
URE at $4.75
Max pain for option holders. Will the PPT show up?
Big VIX spike.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
VIX is .05 from the high yesterday.
Am I crazy to think long here?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Yes
I’d go long only if we get through the daily VWAP
November 19th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
I wish I had access to RT VWAP.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Daily VWAP is at 843
November 19th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
surgae,
Let us know when the long signal is made. TIA
November 19th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
No but timing is the key
$TNX and $TYX down more than 5%