|
19
Nov
|
4:30am BoE Minutes
8:30am Earnings Before the Open: BJ, EV, LDK, MENT, ROST, TSL, TWB.
8:30am Oct CPI (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 4.9%; ex food & energy last m/m 0.1%, y/y 2.5%)
8:30am Oct Housing Starts (last 817K), Oct Building Permits (last 805K)
9:00am Fed’s Kohn speaks on asset prices at conference.
10:35am Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
1:30pm Fed’s Lacker speaks on the subprime crisis at conference.
2:00pm FOMC Minutes
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: CYBX, DBRN, EGLT, GYMB, HOTT, INTU, LTD, LDG, MW, PETM, PLNR, SMTC, TK, WGOV.
Check out the Intraday Commentary Guide for answers to frequently asked questions and general guidelines on how to use this daily forum.
If you would like to volunteer to provide Intraday Commentary, please contact us.
Robert Prector of Elliot Wave Intl on Yorba tv in 1 minute 4:49 EST.
http://www.yorba.tv/yorbatvlive.htm
November 19th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Did he give any updates on where the market is headed? I’ll check up tonight and see
what EWI says.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
He talked more longer term. Said the low would be reached in the next 2-4 years (very vague). Wouldn’t say if we hold or test 2002 lows or if we head back up tomorrow.
Mohan: If you don’t mind, sorry if I’m repeating here what bonds do you look at when you trade. I trade almost purely on VWAP, Fibs and MA. I’m not as skillfull as others in seeing chart patterns but this works for me.
Rest: I know some of you don’t have access to the daily VWAP, so I’ve been diligent in posting it from time to time on the board. It is available on TOS.
Videos: Brian Shannon is an unbaised TA maestro. I’ve been viewing his videos for over a year and those have only improved my TA skills. Glad Craig finally posted one of this videos on this site. You won’t be skewed into thinking one way or another like Tony C’s videos. Just good down to the ground TA. On his site there is a very good article on VWAP. I picked this up from him and it has improved my trading considerably.
http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2007/11/institutional-trading-benchmark.html
Made some good $$$ today and hope to keep things straight.
Comments from GS
NY ROUNDUP – Wednesday, November 19, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
FOMC Minutes – may need to cut rates further if growth ebbs, forecasts cut
Fed Kohn- Contraction ahead, deflation risk rises
Richmond Fed Lacker: Withdraw Fed safety net when possible
US October CPI drops 1.0% – biggest drop on record – more than expected
US October housing starts drop 4.5% to 791,000 – better than expected – but down 38% y/y.
COMMENTS
Imagine the circus of finance without a government safety net. The acrobatics of the daily tape leave many wanting more than nets to break the fall. Equities down 6%, CMBS down again and center stage of credit troubles, Agency spreads wider, 30Y bond yields below 4%, VIX at 74.5 up almost 7, gold flips to close down $4 after being up over $25; oil down $1.50. Today, the US government via the TARP could buy the rest of the big banks in the US – Citibank, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley and they would have money left over – the nine original banks of the $125 bn TARP injection cost a mere $300 bn to buy in full today. This suggests two points – in contrast to the Chinese plans for their economy, the US TARP has left markets still vulnerable. The news agenda wasn’t entirely at fault today – Housing Starts were lower but not worse than expected. CPI was lower – core even contracted – sparking less talk of buying power and more talk of the ability for the FED to quantitatively ease. FED Kohn comments were crucial for the day as he noted the FED was already at the fuzzy border of monetary and fiscal spending. The implication was that further action is possible but not forthcoming. But the other comments hurt Senator Dodd suggested an automaker bailout was possible but not forthcoming as well. FED Lacker went out and suggested that the FED should be pulling its safety net as soon as possible. So with no new TARP money, no stimulus plan until after January 20th and Obama, no help for autos, no real talk of further FED action that would last – the market got worried about the present weakness leading to another collapse. FOMC minutes did offer up that the FED would likely ease more – but concerns about the zero rate limit and forecasts which seem optimistic today – all left many feeling more vertigo than virile. There are no heroes on a tight wire. Today’s acrobatics are critical in setting the pace for FX – which managed to show renewed volatility and life – perhaps even terror – as the USD lost ground on Kohn’s comments and forced technical buying to EUR 1.2815, then reversed sharply as the equity correlation pulled like gravity and we settle EUR at 1.2525. The JPY had a similar story only the break of 96 seems more important as the vulnerable leg may be a test back to 92. But the commodity currencies suffered the most – CAD at 1.2535 and AUD at .6370 show the vicious correlation of weaker stocks to weaker growth to weaker commodities leading to weaker CAD, AUD. The risks of new lows for both were the fodder of technical analysts as they ran for exits. But the show must go on – expect the focus in the center ring tomorrow to be Singapore GDP, US Jobless claims, Philly FED – bottom line – the safety net of the FOMC wasn’t sufficient to hold the markets together today, will the government surprise tomorrow?
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2520 1.2815 Close: 1.2603
USD/JPY 95.69 97.10 Close: 96.41
EUR/JPY 119.81 124.30 Close: 121.51
GBP/USD 1.4953 1.5249 Close: 1.5029
EUR/GBP 0.83430 0.84150 Close: .8386
USD/CHF 1.1945 1.2148 Close: 1.2106
EUR/CHF 1.5187 1.5329 Close: 1.5257
AUD/USD 0.6380 0.6596 Close: 0.6454
USD/CAD 1.2285 1.2335 Close: 1.2478
NZD/USD 0.5430 0.5565 Close: 0.5476
http://www.cboe.com/Data/IntraDayVol.aspx
When I saw the 1.99 put/call ratio early this morning…I thought for sure the market was going to rally big based on sentiment indicator. It did for a little bit, and I almost feel for the bull trap. Then the floor just dropped…
Any brave soul willing to tip their toes in the water will be eaten by the alligator…at least it looks that way.
I am not Gannfann. a fan of Gannfann instead.
Thank you GR…. And Tom …..It is my hope that I have helped in some way…
It is nice to know that people appreciate the effort…..
Mohan… are you the same Mohan that posted in the yahoo message board many years ago for the stock of ancr? I use to post there under the aka of
MrFreezzze…..
Gannfann
November 19th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
No. I never posted on Yahoo boards
What a day to have to leave in mid-morn. Just read back thru the day’s posts and see I missed an edge of seat day. Damn, You guys captured it great. Was fun to read your posts. Still holding EEV but may get out in the AM, Time now for some shut down time.