Options and Stock Market Technical Analysis video from long-time StockTock visitor and contributor, Idan Koren. He provides video analysis on YouTube under the name u05ikoren.
Video from Idan Koren ~ 11/18/08
– November 18, 2008Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Videos
This guy is the man. Does he have a website?
I think he is a student at Duke.
Idan and Tony C bring up great points. However, both analyses are largely predicated upon OPEX keeping prices up ARTIFICIALLY. Ultimately, they both seem to be bearish.
IF the support fails and/or a large gap down occurs (e.g., no GM bailout, etc.), the put writers and those holding bullish positions would have to cover/short, which would exacerbate the crash scenario.
Just pointing out that the bullish trade seems just as risky as the bearish trade over the next couple days. Tony’s comments that “SPX ~920 is 100% probability” or Idan’s remark that there will be a “definitely strong bounce into Friday” makes me actually more bearish.
Well done. I’m thinking the same. I’m thinking we fakeout in the AM then head north. I’ll be patient for entry and keep tight stops.
Interesting read…VIX options expire tomorrow
http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/2008/11/so-long-nov-vix.html
if we dont all go crazy in this environment ill be amazed. i took profits on my short position this morning and went long OIL. tight tight stops is right. we could get really chewed up in this mess if we dont use preservation techniques. im still short in some positions but im going to buy into a rally after watching the overnight action. time will tell. however, is wall street not allowed to make take a big loss on Options EX. if no buyers show up then no rally. they cant always win. look at the VW trade… they have big losers too. caution!
Thxs Idan
But don’t S&P index options expire 3pm Thursday? If so why would the rally push into Friday?
cheers
If you notice in the video at the end a little bubble window pops up saying “correction, rally up to Friday” Not “into” Friday.
Thanks for the video, Idan.
Idan,
Thanks for the video.
Mohan,
can you start the intraday comment thread for today?
Seems everyone is talking a pop based on option-x. Well, the max pain was even worse in September and no rally materialized. Futures show no sign of a mad rush to drive up stocks.
And as for yesterday’s last hour push, it was just daytrader short covering when the market did not breakdown as they had expected; they had been placing short orders the whole day. In the last hour they were forced to place a huge wave of buy orders “at market” to cover and the price ramped until all orders filled. most at higher prices, even into afterhours. I believe this is EXACTLY what happened last Thursday as well, which was totally reversed the next day if you recall. This is NOT bullish. This is not new buying. BEWARE.
Each call for a rally lately finds no REAL new buyers, so don’t be surprised if it just simply doesn’t happen or is rather muted due to the overhead resistance which is substantial.
Thank you Schweizer. Seems to me that a lot of people are looking for predefined outcomes and using TA in a fast and loose manner to support their positions…..a very dangerous game to play
budweiser (45b) moved the market after 3….a lot more than short covering.
Uh, I hate to rain on the lovefest but index options have about 27 hours until expiration and the sure thing option x rally Idan and Tony C keep talking about is conspicuously absent..or is it just me.