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Look at the decrease in volume from 1:48 to now.
ES testing 831 for the third time.
I have a channel drawn and ES 825 is testing it right now. If this goes down I’ll jump in.
A close under 800 would be sweet. The 817 lows are easy within reach. I dont’ expect buyers to step up to the plate this time on that retest. No fundamentals, TA…just an opinion.
2nd support line reached. expect bounce
Testing the 1STD on the daily VWAP here at 825
that’s one big bounce!
No TA in the commentary today, just wishing.
So bad.
Read a bit FT.
825 is also the previous low (before 816) from 10/27 and 10/28. We’re getting in deep here.
Cramer is on CNBC – wonder what he’ll tell me to buy today?!?!?!?
Buying volume (green worms) very light. Battle is at the S2 just like at the S1 earlier. XLF far below the old lows of Thursday.
Last hour will be wild.
volume not looking good for bulls. might test 825 soon.
you must be looking at delayed quotes… that was about 10 min ago
Or a re-test, but I’m betting delayed. Woo – go to thinkorswim and get you some free real time software.
How do you get free real time software? I got 20′ delay
I am also testing this free TOS software, so am wondering how long it last before they cut me off???
I am currently trading with Scottrade but called their tech support asking how to add VWAP to my charting, first they didn’t know what it was, then they admitted that they do not provide it with Scottrade Ellite.
from craig :
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The VWAP is calculated by dividing the dollar volume of a stock by the share volume over a given period of time. Simply put, the VWAP is the average price that each share was executed over the period of time being studied.
I use the ThinkOrSwim charting software and they do not have a study for VWAP, so I made one myself. Create a new user defined study and enter the following code:
plot Data = TotalSum(Volume * Close) / TotalSum(Volume);
I use VWAP charted on a 1-day chart with a 1-minute interval. To use properly in TOS charts, make sure you only include price action from Today. To set the correct time frame, click Style: Intraday: Today: 1-minute
The VWAP is considered to be a fair benchmark for comparison of the institutional trade desks ability to execute trades on behalf of the customer. If the brokerage purchases were made at a price less than VWAP then they did a good job for the customer. If the price paid was greater than the VWAP they may lose that customer for future transactional business. The daily VWAP is a number which changes as orders are transacted at varying prices throughout the day.
Because VWAP is such an important piece of data to the largest market participants, it is something that every market participant must be familiar with in order to stay on the correct side of the m
If we crash we go to 785 ES 1h. That is the almighty blue channel trendline.
Pennant update. Note RSI backtest underway.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spy-bearish-pennant-breakdown
Awesome call! TA works baby!
From now on I’m sticking with the little people’s analysis. Our intraday calls have been golden.
834 would be a retest of the trendline from the highs of the day,
10-year closed up 4.04%. This is death sentence to equities.
You are golden as well my friend. I’m still on the sidelines. The bottom has me worried. If we break down I’ll jump in. I’m not sure what my problem is. I see it going down. I know it’s going down. I guess since i did not get a perfect entry (which I actually did at the open on friday) I’m not in. Got to get it together.
The market is trying everyone. I’ve never made so many mistakes in the past as I’ve had in the present. HA HA
If a big sell-off is in the offing for tomorrow, people on the sidelines will not be able to get in. On the other hand, I THINK that t-bond rally has sealed the fate for any upside rally.
I could be totally wrong.
Sorry…why won’t people on the sidelines be able to get in? Wed is traditionally the most volatile day on OPEX week.
If there is a big gap down, market opens with huge spike in VIX. Both are not good entry points for being short or buying puts.
846 would be the VWAP.
My SDS stop got hit (had it close in case a rally appeared). Will wait till I see a plumet to 770 or the spx gets back up to the 900 range.
We test High of the day at close,crash another day
Bet you are loving your short ETFS lol.
another H&S?
complete. will it play out?
looks promising, no?
Do we finish up 150 and rally big tomorrow??
OK 30min to go. Let’s see if any fireworks today. Surage – good call on the VWAP. We know 825 is support then 817. Above us are 850 and 866. Let’s hope we get some good action. I’m with Mohan, tomorrow may be the day something happens. Bond rally combined with the bottom bounce (and possibly PPT if it exists) may lead us up. On the other hand everything generally sucks. We’ll see what happens.
How does a bond rally lead us up?
I should have been more clear. Prices retreating favors equities. Theoretically we should be crashing right now with yields where they are. Flight to safety is underway. See Mohan’s post at top of page. We should be at 750 or below. I do not get it.
Yet another inverse H&S forming. Rt shoulder forming. Neckline at 842. Would take us to about 860 if it plays out. Probably wont, but just an FYI
1 min es
Just broke neckline need to break 1day VWAP at 846. Should take us to 860/865 into close
I see it trying to break out now, but stiff resistance level.
We nailed it!!!
You could possibly draw a price channel from 842 (top) to 832 (bottom). We were in it before we broke lower, then climbed back to trading in the channel.
nevermind…we broke out…
Here we go highs of the day
Do i detect a little green worm?
This could be the start of mini rally to sucker people in and than we go down to test the lows, S&P below 800 to 768 perhaps. This than could give us a good bounce up for 4 to 6 weeks sustainable rally hopefully.
I just don’t know when.
Yeah i think there needs to be some more bulls to get sucked in before the final crash. I still believe in Craig’s charts. VIX wasnt that high when we go there today. I think the charts are setting up nicely for a push to 950/1000. Then the final tank. Maybe GM will be the final catalyst that we will bring us to 768 (2002 lows)
Mr. Market is gonna rounding up some fresh bull meat for the bears to feast on Wednesday. Pretty obvious.
Mr. Market is rounding up some fresh bull meat for the bears to feast on Wednesday. Pretty obvious.
That sounds better.
Well hello bounce to 8700 geez,
Tony C. Live now 4pm EST:
http://www.yorba.tv/yorbatvlive.htm
Nice man. Is he on after every market close?
No. Only certain days.
Bigger Inverse H&S forming. Neckline at 866. Top of head at 825. Would need to form after hours though.
Stocks rallied in the final hour of trading in part because fund managers whose portfolios are tied to the S&P 500 had to find a replacement for Anheuser-Busch Cos. The brewer was officially acquired by Belgium’s InBev SA for $52 billion.
OR, The late day pop in the S&P was that many day traders expected a breakdown today, went short, and when it didn’t happen they covered their shorts and there were few sellers so the price ramped big-time. This all happened after the bond market closed. This implies the market may DUMP Wednesday (or soon).
I had thought that a bailout of the auto industry this week was going to give the last small rally before the big selloff. Now I’m thinking the realization that a bailout isn’t coming (at least not before Obama takes office) will be the catalyst for the selloff. Watch for a Friday, Monday, Tuesday bloodbath.
Comments from GS
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, November 18, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
US NAHB housing market index drops to record low in November 9 from 14
US NAR home prices fall 9% y/y in 3Q
FDIC Bair: New anti-foreclosure plan “essential”
FED Chairman Bernanke: Credit markets strained, capital helping
US Treasury Paulson: Need to preserve TARP funds
COMMENTS
Stocks closed higher on the day (Dow up 1.8%, S+P up 1%, NASDAQ flat) but do not be fooled by the close. This was an ugly day, with the financial sector under-water for most of the session. As we suggested earlier, it turned out being an incredibly long afternoon as stocks were down as much as 3% and agencies bonds as much as 20 bps wider. What were the catalysts today? Three things stick out as the key themes. First, Paulson made it clear that TARP isn’t a life line and reminded investors that the remaining $410bn in TARP money would not be deployed until after Obama takes office. In his testimony, he said “the rescue package was not intended to be an economic stimulus or an economic recovery package.” Second, Bernanke simply was not explicit enough with respect to quantitative easing. In other words, while Q.E. is already happening (after an initial wave of issuance, the treasury hasn’t needed to roll short-dated bills to fund TARP), the market was craving something more concrete. Ideally investors want to be told that rates will be kept low for a long, long time. Third, the NAHB housing data was horrific, with the future sales outlook especially grim. You add it all together and you get an even uglier forward-looking equity landscape. Agencies widened materially today as it is becoming increasingly obvious that there is no quick fix to the foreclosure problem and that the treasury isn’t going to go out and simply buy up all the bonds. Similarly, CMBS traded very poorly today as fears over several potential high-profile defaults intensify. One other item worth noting today was the strong TIC data (somewhat distorted by the massive amount of US selling of foreign bonds). While US treasuries remain the safe-haven asset of choice, it appears as if the breadth of international participation decreased last month, which could eventually put some strain on the USD. FX today remained a low beta risk asset with 1.25 in the EUR and 95.5 in USDJPY the next key levels to watch to the downside. Tomorrow brings the US CPI data, US housing data and the latest Fed minutes as well as the latest UK MPC minutes after their surprise 150 bp ease.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2566 1.2701 Close: 1.2579
USD/JPY 96.03 97.42 Close: 96.43
EUR/JPY 121.12 123.59 Close: 121.30
GBP/USD 1.4900 1.5055 Close: 1.4914
EUR/GBP 0.8392 0.8458 Close: 0.8434
USD/CHF 1.1968 1.2048 Close: 1.2042
EUR/CHF 1.5126 1.5200 Close: 1.5148
AUD/USD 0.6435 0.6579 Close: 0.6440
USD/CAD 1.2179 1.2385 Close: 1.2372
NZD/USD 0.5460 0.5553 Close: 0.5468
No clear calls at this point. I’ll play long or short if the market will give me any pure true direction. I’m still leaning with the bears as buyers are absent and overall trend is down. BUT – all the EW geeks are calling for a bounce, thus I’m keeping the powder dry and my mind open.
Currently it’s lite, especially on this “rally.” 10m charts are now overbought, so a strong rally is low-odds.