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This post by Jerry48 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
I know many are weary of EW counts, so this is thrown out merely to counter all the bearishness heard over the past few days. Fact is, when the market turns we’ll be able to know what the count REALLY was, but in the meantime we have to be aware of the possibilities so that we’re not caught by surprise. If Wave v of 5 of (3) truncates, the reversal will be hard and potentially damaging in a big way to the shorts.
I think it’s worth noting that the news in the last week has been horrific between GM, the Paulson waffle, Citi, hedge fund d-day, blah blah blah and yet the market is not hitting decisive new lows. Yes we got here in a hurry and yes we needed a breather and yes there’s a huge chance of a hedge fund blow up or a bigger commercial real estate catastrophe. I suggest we move with caution and sensible stops
My thoughts are that the only thing holding the market up right now is opex.
Tony.C’s latest video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDoXOtjRRco
November 18th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Tony C is saying it’s a “100% probability that we go to 920,” but resistance may prevent a move above. That’s a pretty bold statement. We shall see.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I heard that on the video too. Last week, I heard Tony C say that we were heading into the mother of all crashes. We weren’t. Maybe we are this week, but now Tony C is short term bullish, Gay Ron Teed!
The moral of the story is, Tony C is as likely to be right as you, me or anyone else on this board.
The count that I am getting is that wave 4 of 5 of the larger (3) is now possibly underway. That would take us to either the 910’s or the 940-960 range. Then the final wave down would resume. If we get a recognizable 2 waves up, then we will be more likely to identify the rally as the 4th wave.
The other issue to consider is that we are still below key resistance. It is below the 5-day moving average and the 2 day vwap. It is also below the support levels from the last 2 days, now acting as resistance. The MACD is still pointing down on the daily chart, which is usually bearish.
One of the major trendlines acting as resistance connects the peaks from 09/19 to 11/04. Currently it is at about 920, but since it is so steeply sloped, it will be less than that by Wednesday.
That’s my opinion and I’d love to become a bull once we finally complete that 5 of 5.
I think that this wave count is going to be correct. Not only does it coincide with Tony C’s view, but it clashes with EVERYONE else’s. 95% of the people on this site alone seem overwhelming bearish. Check out some of the comments from just today:
“There is absolutely no reason to fish long, go long, and even mention the word long right now.”
“The Government has run out of bullets. I feel bad for anyone long overnight. Maybe we see a bounce but I’m doubting it.”
“The buyers have been crushed so many times lately that I can’t put faith in any move higher”
“Being a bull is scary.”
These are all comments about SENTIMENT and not TA. Not only that, but you hear people everywhere talking about giving up on their 401k’s because the market isn’t going back up. Markets don’t crash when people are expecting it like this. I’ve been saying it for the past few days but no one agrees: an epic rally is extremely close.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Today, I converted my IRA to Cash and my 401 to the most conservated Pimco fund. Call it a hedge against a better tomorrow!
Saying that “market don’t crash when people are expecting it” is your own personal Oxy Moran. Think about that.
I’m tired of everything right now. More than anything I’m pissed to be a permabear and to have missed the last two days after getting stopped out of a perfect short entry friday at the open friday afternoon. Every EW guru on the planet called for the bounce, so I waited patienly and now I am bitching. I want a recovery. I think I see one tomorrow after an initial test of the lows. I’m prepared to play long and hoop and holler. We’re long overdue. Question is can we find the buyers?
Big AutoMaker Bailout Decision TOmorrow…i think….futures are down a bit..any reason to believe the big 3 clowns get their money?
November 18th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Unless there’s a rabbit to be pulled out of a hat, no way they’ll get the 25b. Republicans have said no and so has Bush. They’ll have to come back, hat in hand again after January 20th and try again.
Tony C’s video makes me happy I bought TNA near the low today and decided to hold. I just hope any downturns don’t scare me out. lol
I’m very ready for this last leg down. I want it to happen and then we can enjoy a couple months of up and sideways.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Strong case made in this article for rally over the next few days. Number of charts on the financial indices, GS, BAC, S&P etc.
I like Tony’s videos but he has been wrong the last three times of where he though the market was going the next day. Check his last Thursday, Friday and weekend videos. Again, great videos but….hmmm.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:43 am
In fact, Tony C’s been *consistently* wrong going back even further. Recall his videos “flags half-mast” and “seat belts & crash helmets required” during the 3rd and 4th weeks of Oct. He even called for a shutdown of the markets for several days, due to massive crash… Don’t know why people think he’s so great. I suppose if you post enough videos, eventually you’ll get one right. I’m just glad I never traded on his predictions. I’d be broke by now.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:19 am
I’ve tracked Tony’s video’s since Flag Hal Mast against market movement and this guy has been off more than on in his predictions. In fact many of the charts I see posted are becomingly increasingly off target. Face it – charts work when the marlet is moving from internal rather than eternal (fed intervention; political hooplah, etc) factors. The I trust the charts mantra is not gospel these days. Don’t agree? Youtube the variety of charts being posted. If charts do not lie how can there be so many interpretations of charts and so many forecasts of where the charts will go from here?
Survival mode is where to be right now. Don’t take anyone’s advice as gospel. Not Craig’s, not anyone else’s. The model is broken because of external tampering. Day trade with tight stops on days you can be close to market coverage and your laptop.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:21 am
I totally agree.
Seems everyone is talking a pop based on option-x. Well, the max pain was even worse in September and no rally materialized. Futures show no sign of a mad rush to drive up stocks.
And as for yesterday’s last hour push, it was just daytrader short covering when the market did not breakdown as they had expected; they had been placing short orders the whole day. In the last hour they were forced to place a huge wave of buy orders “at market” to cover and the price ramped until all orders filled. most at higher prices, even into afterhours. I believe this is EXACTLY what happened last Thursday as well, which was totally reversed the next day if you recall. This is NOT bullish. This is not new buying. BEWARE.
Each call for a rally lately finds no REAL new buyers, so don’t be surprised if it just simply doesn’t happen or is rather muted due to the overhead resistance which is substantial.
Has anybody noticed that the RUT took out intraday lows by a wide margin today? Just curious.