Comments on: Alert: Big Rally in T-Bonds

By: Schweizer135

Schweizer135 — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:33:11 +0000

As mentioned above, I think the late pop was daytrader short covering when the market did not breakdown as they had expected. They place a huge wave of buy orders at market and the price ramps until they all fill, even into afterhours. I believe this is EXACTLY what happened last Thursday as well, which was totally reversed the next day. This is NOT bullish. This is not new buying. BEWARE.

The flight to bonds today is bearish for stocks.

By: gr

gr — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 23:30:49 +0000

perhaps more interestingly is that the yield of 5-year T-Notes reached the lowest closing today since June 13, 2003.

By: Josh

Josh — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:40:46 +0000

IYF is testing the bottom of a 1.5 year trendline. If financials are still leading this market, we need to keep a close eye on that.

By: Schweizer135

Schweizer135 — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:22:37 +0000

Likely this week ,as next week is a Holiday week and volume will be light, but who knows.

By: Scott

Scott — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:09:30 +0000

Move up enough in equities to suck some folks into thinking that once again, this is “the bottom”… and then the dive will begin. I’m imagining a Fri, Mon, Tue selloff that will hurt a lot of folks.

By: Mohan

Mohan — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:01:45 +0000

Very Likely…

The move in bonds cannot be ignored, unless tomorrow yields push back up.

By: Schweizer135

Schweizer135 — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:51:27 +0000

The late day pop in the S&P was that many day traders expected a breakdown today, went short, and when it didn’t happen they covered their shorts and there were few sellers so the price ramped big-time. This all happened after the bond market closed. This implies the market may DUMP Wednesday (or soon).

By: ZEROSUM

ZEROSUM — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:51:17 +0000

I think the day treasuries either don’t move on increased fear or move lower in price on increased fear will be the real shocker. Increased risk premiums demanded by foreign govt’s and other investors will result in a real shift in what is possible and no longer possible in repairing our economy. Higher rates across the board beyond our control.

By: pgrychah

pgrychah — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:49:17 +0000

Cant explain. I use http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php only

By: Mohan

Mohan — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:42:40 +0000

ALD is almost a penny stock. I don’t have stomach for those stocks, which I usually avoid.