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12
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008
- 8:30am Earnings Before the Open: ACM, FLY, CSIQ, DSX, DPS, GMCR, HQS, IGLD, JASO, M, TYPE, NSSC, NICE, ORCT, SMA, NGLS, TRI
- 10:35am Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
- 11:00am Fed’s Kohn speaks on financial services in Luxembourg
- 1:00pm Treasury’s ten-year note auction
- 1:00pm Fed’s Stern speaks in Minneapolis
- 2:00pm Treasury’s TSLF auction
- 3:00pm Treasury’s TSLF announcement
- 4:00pm Earnings After the Close: JOBS, ARAY, ANW, AFCE, APEI, AMAT, CALL, CHIC, CSC, CROX, ESE, GA, LVS, NTES, NTAP, SINA, TTEK.
When we get the bounce it should be a pretty good rally up and stocks should rise sharply. Looks like tomorrow we should get the bottom in, let us hope it happens today.
Who is going to buy here? Valution is the only positive and I’m not buying into the value trap. Hedge fund redemptions are possibly part of this controlled sell off. Sorts not covering at this point is a little disturbing.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
My longs are in place fully in UYG. This double etf is at a tradable bottom already like a lot of others out there. I believe everything is pointing to a rally. Buying a long etf right now at or near 850 on the S&P with a stop at 825 cant do too much damage. I am still holding on to a couple of short positions as well which I will probably dump at the end of today with nice profits.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Shanky, i think we will still go down tomorrow and should put bottom in by tomorrow or Firday.
Sentiment wise, I don’t see why a bounce should occur. The news today about the Fed and how it plans to reorganise the use of the TARP isn’t a pleasant news. They are also resisting helping out the Big 3, which I agree are terribly run companies. Asian markets will be down, so I don’t see the need to jump on the bull wagon just yet. We could easily see the test of the lows possibly in the overnight futures.
We might be turning for the afternoon push. All hail the black channel!
November 12th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
how long do you usually hold your positions?
holy volume on this latest move lower
November 12th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
es 1 min
Look at that volume and the battle being waged.
just exited my short w/ nice profits
November 12th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
That could possibly be the best timed trade on the board ever, but we’ll see.
ES 5m massive green hammer wilth huge tail. Was awesome to watch form. Bulls are in the house.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
lol ty
November 12th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Fantastic. Great timing!
I got an timing acorn with UA trade yesterday. Sadly, like that squirrel in Ice Age, I blew it on SSO.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
For today, yes, but not for the future.
Taht is your turn around right there.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
No triggers yet. I think we are out of time today. The trigger will have to wait tomorrow.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Mav, do you think we see more selling tomorrow and than bulls come in late afternoon for the rally back up into next week with optExp week.
November 12th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
I am expecting a rally tomorrow sure, since I am optimistic. But none of the key charts I watch are giving me buy triggers. GS was very close to a buy trigger today and never went off. I kept waiting all day.
The bulls need to save 845 on the cash tomorrow. That is their best bet.
i think that move was largly due to short covering
right at 850 on the S&P
We need someone to moderate this board BADLY.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
The gods are out there. I think we did well other than a few intruders. I’m really glad everyone hung around and didn’t ditch.
ES 30m still not offering the divergence for a turnaround. I’m not in yet and it’s looking like I won’t have a position till tomorrow. If I miss it, so be it. I’ll be long soon enough – I think. Odd that I’m not getting that feeling to scream from the mountain tops.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
I have my doubts about a rally based on the trendline breaches today on the daily RSI and the fact the MACD has now curled badly, yet it’s too oversold to go short!
grrrrr
850 just like I hypothosized earlier. Now to see if the rally begins in earnest tomorrow. I did enter my TNA position as I said I would time to give these 3x etfs a spin. Gonna play it a stop at around 825 I think jsut incase the bulls can’t rally.
Looks like we are about to try to confirm the bottom.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Getting out of my tza.. im buying bgu tomorrow
Elliot Wave analysis puts a break below 845 as wave 4 is complete and wave 5 is underway. We have stopped short. 5 mins to go.
Some crazy action here, nasdaq may have just completed a bullish engulfing fakeout move. Watch that.
I want to swing some SSO but not gonna do it. MACD on ES 30 looks like it might be getting ready to turn and RSI reaching my buy levels. When they both hit it has great odds of being a prefect storm. Hopefully we test the low in the AM and I get a chance to get in.
November 12th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
What price would that be…$24?
Look at the volume for that very last candle on the 1 min ES
November 12th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
last 2 HUGE buy candles
November 12th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Yet its down after hours….
One of the worst days for me.
November 12th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Even though I finally bought some SDS all of my longs got absolutely crushed.
November 12th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Short x2 SDS’s have been screaming the last days.
On the general market, it looks down, with a 4th wave correction “sometime” before wave 5 down (extended?). Then a bounce to DOW 10k. Hunker down for now.
November 12th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Are u still holding SSO calls for the G-20 next week that may pan out?
November 12th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Yes,
I am holding both SSO shares and calls.
I tried to cut down the stake by half at the close. Only a partial was executed.
If Tony C’s pennant formation is breached today, this market may already be on the edge – G20 or not. For my sake, I hope not.
I have a negligible short position and I am stuck in SSO.
November 12th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Mohan, I know the feeling. It’s hard to navigate this market, even now who really knows how low we’ll go and once we hit the lows who will have confidence to step in and buy
November 12th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
I’d love to see an alternate wave count with a breakdown here. Mohan – are we capitulating here? News is favorable. Charts are approaching the bottoms. Buyers are not present. Both you and I should be jumping for joy here and we’re looking to get long? We need our heads checked. We’re thinking contrarian and withe the charts, but there is nothing else to take us up. This is just strange.
November 12th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Remember my tag line in the final swoon, there will be a “sell to whom?” scenario. I don’t want to be the person asking that question.
It feels pretty grim for longs (now that I am one, I can feel it myself
). That may be the only saving grace for the market.
So Craig leaves and this board becomes Yahoo Finance with all the mindless pumping. What happened to all the comments that were back up with TA.
November 12th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Looks like a bottom in natural gas, oh wait thats just my bottom!
November 12th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
I don’t see too much more pumping than usual. A lot less TA though.
to anyone who wants to avoid traps and pitfalls, may I suggest a cup of coffee with Gannfann? it’s free yet priceless.
SSO down after hours – 24.3
Massive breakdown on ES after hrs. I’m so depressed I exited shorts yesterday. Cost me 7 pts on SDS and 12 on EEV. Can’t argue with $$ in pocket. Did not make a diciplined trade and hauled as too early. Actually Kenny’s chart got me. I sold at his point. Should have stuck with Craig. What an idiot.
November 12th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
That’s exactly what happened to me too. I sold SDS @ SPX 886 or so and today I am cursing my haste in selling. I have no feeling for the short term market direction now. I will say that in over a year of being in and out of SKF, SDS etc. and obsessively following the economy, I have never felt so much gloom before. All news and all opinions are bleak. I do not consider this a contrarian opportunity. On the contrary, I believe that we are marching straight into a depression.
November 12th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
damn we hit my profit objectoin after hours… oh well i exited my short near the intraday bottom. tomorrow should be an intresting session.
INTC yanked the rug AH.
Comments from GS
NY ROUNDUP – Wednesday, November 12, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
US Treasury Paulson: Moves TARP away from buying assets, wants more capital infusions
EIA: US 2008 oil demand to drop by 1.1 mln bpd
FED Governor Kohn: May need more steps to soothe markets
Japan may provide IMF with 10 trillion JPY of aid – part of G20 discussion
COMMENTS
The scorecard for US markets today was bearish – the fifth down day in six. Equities down 5.2%; VIX up 5 to 65; Oil down 5.7% to $55.90, copper, gold both about the same; US 1M Tbills pay 6 bps and 2Y 1.16% while 10Y bonds survived new supply and close 3.65% – auction had lowest demand of the year but was better than its German Bund counterpart in Europe. USD loses against the JPY by 2.75%, gains against most everything else – with AUD off 2.8%; GBP off 2.7%; CAD 2.2%. Oddly EUR was almost unchanged. The pressure to further deleverage positions was driven by four factors today: 1) Overnight concerns about growth. We opened with futures offered and with most people talking about China stimulus being too little, too late. Many also pointed to continuing bad equity news, bankruptcies and a stall in spread improvements such as LIBOR. 2) US Treasury Paulson. His comments today set the tone for the equity market as further capital injections into the financial sector is taken as dilution of shares. Furthermore, removing the potential US government bid for illiquid mortgage related securities added to concerns about bank portfolios and further write-downs. 3) Continued commodity moves. Some would say that this is a barometer not a driver but weak commodities are the front line of production Demand side of the commodity equation always seems the most difficult to calculate but the EIA report today suggests something many were thinking – that the US recession will drive significant drops in commodity demand and therefore prices. This led to more selling – and kept the commodity linked currencies offered. EUR didn’t react but seems unlikely to be able to ignore the usual correlation of oil to EUR. 4) Outlooks – weak sales, more jobs cuts. As we close Intel cuts its 4Q revenue forecast; Best Buy lowered its forecast earlier, MS and AIG promise more job cuts. Bottom line – the markets got nothing bullish today except one tiny sliver of hope at the end of the day – Japan is dusting off its G7 offer to give the IMF $1 trn for a rescue fund. The bounce back risk given the extended shove lower in risk assets may be worth considering into the Asian open – as G20 meeting hopes will only get larger with more news headlines hitting the tape. Unfortunately, the G20 meeting seems to be the panacea for many problems and has even more drivers – as the French offer up a Bretton Woods 3, the US a push for stimulus, the Brazilians a move for more open trade, others for more financial regulations. The fear will be that all of these efforts may be incompatible and perhaps late. We appear to be pushing on a string. Money into a broken financial system has lost its ability to leverage any return – making the exercise of central banks and government officials that much harder to stimulate some sort of new growth into 2009.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2466 1.2613 Close: 1.2510
USD/JPY 94.48 97.72 Close: 95.56
EUR/JPY 118.10 123.22 Close: 119.55
GBP/USD 1.4895 1.5344 Close: 1.4961
EUR/GBP 0.8201 0.8412 Close: 0.8362
USD/CHF 1.1762 1.1887 Close: 1.1870
EUR/CHF 1.4710 1.4923 Close: 1.4849
AUD/USD 0.6348 0.6646 Close: 0.6390
USD/CAD 1.2051 1.2384 Close: 1.2369
NZD/USD 0.5554 0.5785 Close: 0.5616
SUGGESTION:
Please let me know what everyone thinks:
I just spent 20-min going thru all of the previous posts to see if any new comments were added to them. Very Time consuming and unproductive.
I am Suggesting that ALL posts be added at the bottom of the page as a NEW post and if they are in comment or follow up to a previous post, just reference the posting # at the begginning of the message.
This should eliminate the need to look back at all of the postings and allow us to look back exactly to the posting # we are interested in .
Just a thought.
Thank you in advance, for any suggestions you may have on this matter