S&P closed down about 20 points to $899. Volume light due to the holiday.
3:11pm
ES 1m: Potential Head and Shoulders pattern, but I favor the upside from here.
2:53pm
Pulling back into the 50MA on lighter volume. Good spot for a longo with a stop below the 50MA. Coincides with the VWAP as well.
2:28pm
ES 10m: Next resistance at 200MA (~920)
2:00pm
ES 10m/1m: Strong volume break above the VWAP into the 50MA. Check out Kenny’s chart on my 1:10pm post. Looks like he nailed it by calling for support at 885.
1:57pm
ES 10m: Rallying into the 50MA on a surge in volume.
1:47pm
ES 1m: Approaching trendline, then VWAP
1:26pm
EUR/USD 60m: If the euro is a guide, which has recently fallen to session lows, this market is heading lower.
1:20pm
ES 10m/1m: Should the market continue to bounce, we have resistance at the declining 50MA (now at 899) and the VWAP (894).
1:10pm
Check out this wave count from Kenny’s public chart list. According to Kenny, my triangle (or pennant) pattern is not valid because of an apparent 5-wave structure in what he has labeled as c. He may be correct. Triangles do not have any 5-wave structures, only 3s. The question is, can Kenny’s wave c be interpreted as a 3-wave structure. I am not sure, but am leaning towards yes. (thanks to Ty for bringing this to our attention)
12:50pm
SPX 60m: Not much standing in the way of a fall towards support.
12:46pm
ES 10m: Buyers are non-existent. Market does not appear to have the energy to break the 20MA from here. Notice how the 20MA has paced this decline since 4am.
12:03pm
ES 10m: Selling looks very sustainable here, being paced by the declining 20MA. Bulls might make an effort to break above the 20MA, but I’m still looking for more downside towards 855/860 before a bounce. May not reach that target today, but soon.
10:25am
ES 10m: Bonds markets and banks are closed today, so the volume will stay light. However, there appears to be a noticeable absence of buyers today. The moving averages are also setting up a very bearish day.
9:48am
SPX 60m: The right shoulder scenario is in trouble. Watch for a move down towards support near 855/860.
9:36am
ES 30m: Breakdown or Fakedown?
9:09am
ES 10m/1m: Market trading below all 3 major moving averages, which are all pointing lower. The VWAP on the 1m should also serve as resistance.
Noteworthy:
- AXP: Receives approval from the Fed to become a bank holding company
- 3-month USD Libor Fixing: 2.18% (lowest since October 2004)
- Ted Spread at 175bps v 195 bps prior
- Reportedly, OPEC may cut output by a further 1M bpd at Dec meeting due to slowing demand
- The bond markets are closed today for the Veteran’s Day holiday. Banks are also closed so expect light volume in the equity markets.
Does it mean that “d” will be as long as ‘b”?
Wouldn’t be surprised if this move up was just zag b in an a-b-c down to ES 850.
You may be right. Damn good point.
The maket just wants to go down. Let see what happens till close. fake mini rally on the news?
If the market wants to go down, it will break below the VWAP. Otherwise, I would argue it wants to go higher. Testing the VWAP now.
SSO perfectly covered the gap. To the penny. Wow. It was like, “Oops, I for got to do something back here. Let me go take care of that.”. Wow, stuff like that is cool to me. It really happens.
Back to the wild fluctuations again… 885 to 915 in short order, now attacking back down. Hard to take a position in SDS or SSO without being whipsawed out with trailing stops.
Thanks for the fake rally. Gave me a chance to buy some SRS and FXP dirt cheap.
A rally is a rally
Great move. I was contemplating it, but, again, didn’t have the cojones…
ES 1m May be setting up a MASSIVE H&S formation for reversal south.
How far along is the formation?
on the RS, This could be the decisive blow to end this whole “Inverted H&S” on the S&P500..
that may be what’s needed to break down the 886-888 support line.
Right shoulder forming. Will exit SSO at top and wait till tomorrow to get back short unless full blown breakdown. I don’t often go in/out. I don’t have the cajones to stick it out.
Beautiful head and shoulders pattern forming
Is a there a possibility of a H&S forming, we need the right shoulder to be formed. I know way to early.
Ton of folks picked up on the H&S. Nice.
Where is the neckline?
I hate not having access to charts at work ;(
EUR kissing that bottom again.. Should it rebound again, I’ll take another scalp long SSO..
But if it breaks down, then this could have been the final battle for the bulls..
sellers are in full control. just need more buyers.
H&S almost complete.
is this a bullish H&s if so how far can it go up or down if bearish, Im a newbie.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t
Not sure what chart you are looking at.
QID closed it’s intra day gap perfectly and is setting up pretty inverted H&S.
Closed about 1/2 my stake in EEV for a loss, closed COF puts and SRS calls (risk management);
Bought some puts on Under Armor.
I am in 1/3 cash now.
Is this really you, Mohan, or is this Dan again?
Euro fighting to get above the 20MA, if it fails, this could be it!
SKF, SDS, TWM, QID – inverted H&S everywhere plus the H&S on the ES – somethings gotta give here.
The market doesnt know which way it wants to go and its driving everyone crazy. Confusion in these markets are causing chaos. Technical anaylsis is tough to go by at this point because the volatility and switching of rallys happen every 30 minutes. I think the safest play right now is to hedge both sides and when you can lock in profits on one side pull the trigger and then wait for the rebound on the other side.
I’m thinking TA is the only thing that makes any sence to this market. Charts have led me to some incredible timing in determining market moves. North or South. Sure the unexpected is going to happen, but you have your stops in place and then you get back on the train.
Doesn’t GS 5min 1 day chart look like an inverted H&S?…
At the tip of the RS there’s a small H&S that’s forming everywhere.. if it hold, then GS could rally before closing bell..
The EUR/USD 1 min also kinda looks like an Inverted H&S.. it’s right above the 20MA fighting to hold.. if it holds, then we could rally at the end of the day, if it fails, we’ll selloff big time.. I’m on the sidelines looking for a confirmation to either side..
If ES takes out 985 I’ll get short again, but not till confirmation. All right shoulders getting too extended.
Craig – On the 1hr ES the last position was a shooting star big time. Check it out.
H&S breaking lower on ES 1m.
where did everyone go?
They all got vertigo watching the whipsawing action… I can’t figure out which side to buy
in on… I’ll wait til tomorrow
Watching the PPT kick butt
IF we break VWAP im going long.. wait just did
As a long time shorter of GS, something is up with this stock. gs buying its own stock? Some news leak?
If we see a breakout tomorrow, I may jump on it for a ride.
continuing to make new daily highs
Little green worm time?
Healthy positive divergence on the hourlies. Go LONG with stops.
Tony C. on yorba.tv 4pm est today.
http://www.yorba.tv
missed it,
what did he say?
We’re gonna tank eventually.
timeframe?
Government of the fascists, by the fascists, for the fascists, shall not perish from the earth.
- Gettysburg Address (w/ “people” appropriately substituted with “fascists”)
Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.
- Benito Mussolini
——-
Bailout Includes Secretive, Possibly Illegal $140B Windfall for Banks
The Washington Post has revealed the recent $700 billion taxpayer bailout of Wall Street contains a possibly illegal provision that stands to give American banks a massive windfall. As part of the bailout, lawmakers changed tax code Section 382, which limits the kinds of tax shelters companies can use during corporate mergers. It was created to stop companies who avoid paying taxes by acquiring shell companies valued by the losses on their stocks. The companies would then write off the losses and avoid paying taxes on their own profits. Taxpayers stand to lose some $140 billion from the move. Experts say the Treasury had no legal authority to eliminate the tax measure. Republicans have been trying to overhaul or eliminate it since its introduction in 1986. Congressional aides admitted lawmakers agreed to keep the change hidden to avoid public outrage. Staffers with Senate Finance Committee chair, Max Baucus, a Democrat, reportedly asked that an administration briefing on the tax code change be kept secret. One congressional aide said, “We’re all nervous about saying that this was illegal because of our fears about the marketplace. To the extent we want to try to publicly stop this, we’re going to be gumming up some important deals.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/09/AR2008110902155_pf.html
——–
Fed Refuses to List Banks Drawing $2T in Federal Loans
A new controversy has erupted over the Bush administration’s refusal to identify banks on the receiving end of almost $2 trillion in taxpayer loans. The Bloomberg news company has sued the Federal Reserve to release a list of borrowing banks and the troubled assets they’re putting up as collateral. The Fed says it won’t release the list to avoid financial panic. The bank loans have come outside of the $700 billion Wall Street bailout package and don’t require congressional approval. The loans were made under the auspices of eleven different government programs. Eight of them have been created in the past fifteen months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=worldwide
———
“…$125 billion has gone to our 9 biggest banks and Wall Street firms. At least $50 billion is now gonna go out the door to executives in the form of bonuses…”
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/125352/Bail-Outrage-Misuse-of-Funds-Lack-of-Transparency-a-National-Disgrace?tickers=GS,MS,JPM,BAC,C,WFC,XLF
——–
This is OUR government. It is OUR money. Does this not outrage you?…
Lame politics. We come to this site to read and support those with analysis…
Politics? Are you not interested at all in how OUR taxpayer dollars are being used by OUR government?
This isn’t a post about Democrats vs. Republicans. It’s about a swindling of taxpayers for the sole benefit of Wall Street, with no transparency and accountability.
How can a taxpaying American have no opinions about this, much less deride it?
Moreover, the post was submitted far after market close. It isn’t interfering with intraday technical analyses.
This is not a site for your ‘outrage’. I come here to read technical charting not why you personally feel the governement has done you the allmighty tax payer a wrong. Your not here to put insight your here to evoke an argument nothing more. The yahoo boards are a much better place for your ‘news’.
This is vital information to YOU and the markets. I would appreciate it to see this posted in the Conspiracy forum on Social, but it is also welcomed here. We’ve all been looking for the catalyst to throw this market down and this may be it.
Excellent post – 5 Stars!
No, I have no desire to evoke an argument. I don’t. I did want to point out the injustices to those perhaps unaware of them. Certainly, this is not technical insight on trading, and I never pretended that it was. I must reiterate the fact that the post was submitted far after market close, and therefore it did not interfere with intraday trading or analyses.
Your putting “news” in quotes suggests that you don’t deem the links provided to be news. If those are not news, I don’t know what, in your mind, would ever qualify as news.
“Government of the fascists, by the fascists, for the fascists, shall not perish from the earth.”
You started your post off with this. Had you not included the rehtoric I might have been able to look atyour viewpoint more objectivly. If craig is happy with the site turning into a dumpster for peoples viewpoints on the overall gov position then so be it , but if this becomes the norm I can safely say I’ll start ignoring the comments section.
….at least this is actual news…..it should be supported as someone pissed off at our government’s action. You can call out all the H&S patterns all day long but eventually this will be irrelevant when hyperinflation comes a knocking. I think I see a bullish divergence forming in the money supply chart….yep….there it goes.
An article like this at the end of a day is fine with me.
Thank you, Martin and Shanky. Given that my post unexpectedly pissed off a couple of people, which probably means that it pissed off more who have restrained themselves, I will try to be extra careful about posting anything outside of pure, unadulterated, technically-related stuff from now on, even way AFTER market close; nonetheless, I appreciate your supportive words.
I have no problems with it. Very interesting stuff. We don’t want the site to turn into a complaint department about how terrible our gov’t is, because that is not the the site’s purpose.
But your post included links for verification, and this news certainly has an impact on market sentiment and social mood that often factor into trading decisions. I also appreciate you posting it after the market closed.
I can understand why some reacted negatively to it. This is not a site for political opinions or outrages. Most visitors respect StockTock for its neutrality and lack of emotion when it comes to news and politics. Outrage is irrelevant to making money, but the news’ impact on market sentiment may be quite important.
Thanks, Craig. I do understand that StockTock is meant to be a dispassionate, clinical, neutral arbiter of the technical side of the markets, and I will try to be very mindful of that.
Ty:
For what it is worth, I agree with Craig. In fact, I see no problem with your post even during trading hours. I trade primarily on fundamentals not technicals so your post was quite relevant to me.
I have no problem with it. As many said already, it is actual news related to finance. Also, there is nothing wrong in expressing some personal bias and outrage.
Thanks, MJ and Mohan.
Comments from GS
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, November 11, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
US IBD/TIPP November economic optimism index rises to 50.8 from 41.1
US housing agencies widen homeowner help will reset delinquent mortgages
White House: Open to accelerating auto loan funds
Israel Monetary Policy Meeting: Another surprise 50bps cut to 3.00%
COMMENTS
Today being Veteran’s day – a day of remembrance – to honor those that gave the ultimate sacrifice for God and Country perhaps its fitting to recognize that life has more to offer than the ups and downs of various markets. Today was one of relative calm in those dreaded markets but the more fully thought out recognition of the China stimulus plan, coupled with a surprise devaluation of the RUB, mixed with various weak data points globally, splashed with a few bankruptcies, fund closings and a bigger mortgage rejiggering – all of those left markets in “bear” mode. Selling of US equities was steady throughout the day and we close down a bit over 2% despite a few tries to go to flat – particularly after the FHFA press conference and some pushes in the financial sector to rally back thanks to various headlines from the MER conference. The commodity market reflected the downtrodden view on the China stimulus as many wonder how much money is really new and how much will really spark domestic demand. Visions of railroads and bridges to nowhere – more infrastructure to aid exports rather than domestics concerns many. This also hit the US Treasury market – even though its closed today – many fret that the crowding out of capital will hit hard in 2009. Tomorrow’s US auction will be watched closely because of it. Finally, the FX market spent the day trying to believe in the EUR – even as the ECB sounded particularly dovish. The ability for EUR to hold overnight inspired many to think that 1.2550 and 1.2680 were bases for another charge to 1.30 but this all flipped with the selling in equities and we close at the critical support 1.2525 fearing a larger move to 1.1850 with 1.2250 the next big turning point. JPY was calm but unable to do much other than grind stronger from 99 to 96 following the equity market as well. What seems most clear in FX is the pain in EM where TRY over 1.60, ZAR over 10.30, MXN at 13.00 – all point the further troubles in growth, funding and further deleveraging. The major themes are the same three R’s: redemptions (funds continue to sell any position they can to get cash), retrenchments (commodities lower, USD stronger, bonds beat equities); retooling (markets shift from leverage plays to positive cash flows, from growth to value, from carry to PPP). But perhaps today would be one to throw in another R for remembrance – of those that have tried and failed, of business models that won’t have a future, and mostly for those that fought in forgotten wars so that there can be a market in the first place.
Appreciate your continuing posts of these alerts, Pete.
Do you only receive such alerts with regard to the FX market, or do you also receive them with regard to the larger markets as well. If you do, I would appreciate your posting those as well. TIA.
Yes, thank you for sharing this information.
It’s only fx. Usually I receive one in the morning, and one in the evening. I’ll try to post both of them each day.
pete
just noticed the date on this page – 9/11?
Craig,
Are you going to continue to make videos in the future? I know that you are busy, at least temporarily, but can we expect to see these resume at some point?
Thanks for all of your hard work.
Josh
Josh, I am preparing a post on that very question now. You are very welcome and thank you for your quality contributions.
exactly! a bear flag lead to a big H&S to break the 886 support line. perfect!
here it goes!