Comments on: Intraday Commentary ~ 11/7/08

By: Martin

Martin — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 15:34:54 +0000

CDS have pretty much been nullified by the Treasury…just look at the auction results…for every party with a positive claim, chances are they are hedged the other way with an outgoing claim. Maybe a bit simplistic…but thats my thought…if they allow the domino affect then literally its a global derivative blowup.

By: Vikas

Vikas — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 03:09:06 +0000

We did see a big drop when Obama was speaking.. may be the rally was to pose a good picture for him.. U know usually when Bush speaks publically.. market falls..

By: gr

gr — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 22:48:53 +0000

HUI up 4.2% while GDX down 0.6%. what’s going on?

By: Ty

Ty — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 22:03:52 +0000

Craig, if the huge inverse H&S were to come to fruition, would you know what the approximate SPX equivalent of the SPY neckline would be? Does about ~1,012 sound reasonable? And, even if it were to happen, all 3 EW scenarios would still remain valid, would that be correct? TIA.

By: mav

mav — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 21:44:51 +0000

On a lighter note, GS has been trading with oil. Even the astro charts on them both are similar.

By: Ty

Ty — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 21:42:49 +0000

Thanks for the thorough reply, mav.

By: mav

mav — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 21:37:24 +0000

I meant AFAM long, not AFM

By: mav

mav — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 21:36:45 +0000

My horizon is days to one week maximum. I do have swing trades which are of much larger duration from a month ago – one is UNG:USO and NKE puts (from 58) and AFM long (48).

My call in the morning for a period of churn and then a late surge was strictly based on technicals and on astro charts (these unfortunately I cannot reveal).

I never to rationalize price moves. I don’t know the reason for the limitless infusion of capital. All I know is it came in last week. I cannot speculate who is buying or what is buying. Trading needs to be about being mechanical.
There were lots of my astro indicators, pointing to a mixed to slightly bullish day.

As for pure technical indicators and my long bias, I don’t want to short a market which has fallen for 2 days and still has its 20d which turned up or facing upwards. This is not a percentage trade. You will not get any traction on your shorts.

For monday, lets wait for confirmation or resumption of the down/up move, I will jump in then. I will let you know if my proprietary indicators indicate a trend. They are still in a period of churn, with a slight bullish bias. Also SSRI is setting up nicely. Monday or tuesday could be the blast in SSRI.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 21:27:00 +0000

GS didn’t participate in the rally. It actually closed at a 52 week low.

By: Mohan

Mohan — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 21:25:45 +0000

Scary…
I was about to post the same… Since two of us agree, it probably will go up.