4:06pm
Have a great weekend, everyone. I will get a video posted sometime on Saturday. Find updated analysis and share your own on StockTock Social. Can’t say enough about the quality of posting and collaboration from the community this week. Nice job, everyone!
3:07pm
I am not predicting a Black Monday event next week. I think the market may make new lows, but I am looking at the selloff as an opportunity to get long for 3(4). I would expect 3(3) v to be less severe than 3(3) iii. Tough to calculate how low we could go. A selloff to $768 would be one heck of an entry point in my opinion.
2:57pm
SPX 30m: Back down to Triangle support?
2:44pm
SPY 1m: Testing VWAP
2:20pm
The last hour of options expiration is notorious for manipulation and apparent randomness. Some stocks will gravitate to lower strikes while others move to higher strikes. Hopefully, most traders were able to take advantage of the rally over the last two days. I’m not planning on taking any positions over the weekend.
1:43pm
VIX 60m: Has nearly pulled back to support… may signal a reversal/pullback coming.
1:35pm
SPX 30m: Made some adjustments to this chart. Approaching a potential resistance level at about 983. I will be very quick to take profits at this point. It’s been a great trade from the long side. It may go further, but pigs get slaughtered.
1:18pm
XLF 5m: Can the breakout above 16 hold?
1:13pm
SPX 30m: How high can we go? Here are some trendlines I’m watching.
1:08pm
VIX 60m: Has downside to support line. This might be a useful indicator of when to expect a reversal.
1:02pm
TED spread down to 359 bps.
12:53pm
SPX 30m: Testing potential resistance at 960. May be able to rally through it. If you’re long, set mental stops.
12:51pm
SPY 1m: Chart looks poised for more gains. I like the rising slope. Might be able to ride this rally into 2:00.
12:35pm
SPY 1m: Price action trumps volume, which has been declining all day. I’m not reading too much into the declining volume. It’s a Friday and it’s the lunch hour.
12:07pm
SPY 1m: Potential head and shoulders forming. It would be bullish we can rally and break the right shoulder.
12:02pm
TED spread down to 367 bps.
11:38am
SPY 1m: Testing VWAP support
11:18am
SPY 10m: Bearish divergence on MACD. These indicators do not have a strong track record on options expiration but its good to be aware of.
11:06am
TED Spread has improved to 380 bps, nearly 100 bps below its peak levels last week.
10:58am
SPX 10m: Will take some profits on my longs near 960.
10:48am
All 3 major indices into positive territory.
10:40am
SPY 1m: VWAP critical. I’m moving my mental stop price to just under the VWAP.
10:29am
Trade Ideas from Mav:
Still long DZZ. Gold/SLV getting creamed again. UNG:USO is a very nice pair trade. There is some leadership being shown by natural gas in commodities. Also wheat and sugar look ready to turn. I think the commodity producers could rally big when wave 4 starts.
10:28am
Volume is light on the pullbacks. Looks like healthy consolidation.
10:13am
SPY 1m: Will the VWAP hold?
10:10am
ES 10-minute: Topping candle?
10:00am
ES 10m: Moving towards session highs. I think we can rally above 950, but some consolidation might be needed up here. 10am is a popular reversal time…
9:55am
October Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Confidence: 57.5 v 65e
9:31am
ING opens lower by 28%. Ouch. QQQQ is higher by 1.8%.
SLB getting hit hard after earnings, down 12%.
The ratings of UBS were placed on creditwatch negative at S&P.
9:18am
ES 10m: This morning, the market retraced 50% of yesterday’s rally. I’m not letting this morning’s weakness spoil my options expiration rally theory. After all, light volume moves lower are often bullish heading into the open. Notice how the 50% retracement roughly coincides with the breakout price from yesterday’s inverse H&S pattern. That level is my exit point.
8:59am
The TED spread has improved to 389 bps. Crude oil is trading up 80 cents to 70.65. Gold is lower by more than 2% to 788. GOOG is trading higher by 6.5% to $375.
8:49am
SPX 30m: This is what I was looking for heading into today. Might we fall hard today? Of course its a possibility, but it would be the first time in a while the options writers did not have their way. But anything is possible in this market.
1:49am
Today is Options Expiration Friday. Get ready for a fun-filled day of manipulation. I’m planning to sell out of my longs on early strength. I’d like to exit somewhere above 955 on the SPX. I’m expecting a whippy day with some early strength. I’m debating whether I want to build a short position to hold over the weekend in anticipation of weakness on Monday. I’m still not overly comfortable holding positions overnight in this market. I’d rather wait for a short opportunity on Monday. What do you guys think?
My short-term outlook on gold is negative and my long-term view on gold in neutral. There looks to be room on the downside to about 72.50 in the short-term. If that level breaks, we could see downside towards 64. If we can get back above the 84 level, I would start feeling bullish again.
We are topping right now. Daneric’s targets are holding as are trendlines.
CNBC reporting that JPM may be lending in the short term space. If that is so I’m going to get long. That is the news I was looking for to get this thing going again. I wonder if Buffett knew anything about that? Hmmmm. May be time to get super long. Really!
Not yet.
Is there an undo button on TOS?
Don’t believe so.
Lehman execs subpoenaed – bullish (perp walk)
In regards to XLF…. I’m focusing on the MS chart. Very strong resistance at 20.35.
if this is truly a short term bottom the it will coincide with goog bottom agian
Craig, I’m just realizing my VWAP doesn’t plot correctly. I used
“plot Data = TotalSum(Volume * Close) / TotalSum(Volume);”
but my current VWAP serves as no support and is currently at 91 on the SPY. Any idea?
Might have to do with the timeframe of your chart. You need to select:
Style: Intraday: Today: 1-minute
If you select 1-minute shortcut above the chart it includes more than today’s action and messes up the VWAP. Let me know if that works.
That’s what I figured however I didn’t know how to get just today’s data. Works now, thanks.
Dan did not call the breakout of the channel to the upside. HA. He did not get that one right.
Just wait we haven’t broken out yet. We’ve been faked out before.
If you’re referring to Daneric, actually he did. On Yahoo’s SKF board.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=58157&tid=143019&mid=143019&tof=20&frt=2#143019
2:00 – Let the games begin.Sell up or sell off – here we go………………
Cancelled all stop loss orders and now flying manual. No more auto-pilot.
2.5-3 more point on SPY and we are done.
Nearing bottom of channel.
Time to go short?
OK..I slowed up and went thru the posts to date today. didn’t mean to sound like a suck-er asking for guidance earlier. Now I’m caught up with your talk and am fastening what’s left of my frayed seatbelt.
Valerie, no one is a sucker for asking questions. I do it all the time and people here are extremely patient. But sometimes we don’t have a quick or good answer to a question, and the comment leaves uncommented
TOS Prophet Charts are showing inaccurate quotes and occasionally inaccurate candles. Confirmed this with TOS. They have been having issues all week and suggest customers to use their TOS charts.
Craig,
I just made another token donation to help offset some of your expenses to bring us all this great website. I hope it helps. I have learned more about technical analysis from you and some of the other contributers here than I have from all the books that I have ever read. There is no way I could afford to pay you for the value of what I have learned from ALL of you.
Thank you,
Ray Offutt
Ray,
Thank you very much! I sincerely appreciate it.
Baby head and shoulders on the 1 minute? We are going down a little to test uptrend.
MS just broke uptrend. Possible short using uptrend as resistance and stop.
IWM has lagged the S&P 500 all day.
Small caps usually lead the way in rallies and get beaten up the most in sell offs.
Out of half my longs at the trend line break.
Out of all longs. Danm if the ES did not turn right below 990. WOW!
Daneric is the man! Awesome call! Keep up the great work!
Guys, what are the chances of war on Monday?
we are always in a war
Craig:
Good calls. Do you think now we will be seeing 2002 lows per EW theory..? I am trying to figure out if I should cash out my 401 now and then wait for that low. Thanks for your advise
regards
Tough call. I’m really not sure how low we can go. I think we could see 768 but I’m not sure. I’ll be watching for a reversal to get long.
thanks to all, I got out at the high, and taking a knee. Some nice calls and trades today by everybody! Enjoy the weekend, Good luck next week to everyone!!!
Again.. this consolidation is descending in volume.. might see a rally to the close depending on options… But it seems like more people sold puts than sold calls, so .. possible rally..
damn looking like a nice call mate.
I’m with the pigs get slaughtered theory. I sold half positions at the top and lost almost 4% on second half waiting to confirm break of the trendline at bottom.
I think I am just going to hold for a few weeks. Big positions in UYG and SSO. Why not, the upside could be huge on these, and the downside is defined with my stops. There is good news trying to creep out of the doom and gloom reports. One indicator of a trend reversal I like to watch is the bearish/bullish tone of the headlines vs the content of the story itself. How many of you are reading the headlines and then reading the article and saying to yourself “well this is actually good news”.
Um, what articles are you reading?…
Dan – I hope you see this – I agree with your position on just holding. If general direction is up and your SL’s are in the right place why not just hold and take the stress out of it. On the flip side, with these enormous swings you could quintuple your profits playing the swings. If DanEric, Craig and the board keep up the good work it should pay off to play the swings.
The 5 Minute Chart of the SPY has been trending higher on gradually lowering volume
http://tinyurl.com/54w78t
That is a warning sign for early next week although I don’t think they will reverse the market strongly to the downside in the last hour of trading today however you never know.
Held 950 support on ES. Who knows?
Craig,
Notice the Transports are weak again today.
News is too positive right now and sentiment may be swinging to the bulls. Profit taking is in order. Remember these are ENORMOUS rallys. Like half a good years worth in some cases. I’m gona watch till the close and if things start going south I’ll take small shorts to swing over the weekend because DanEric’s prophetic charts tell me to and the huge run up.
Closeout strong. This is a classic ending diagonal playing out today which indicates the move higher is exhausting.
I am setting up shorts for Black Monday at closeout today.
Daneric, can you explain why you think Monday is going to be so bad? I disagree based on “feel” (sorry! but I am a gut trader)
I’ll post my case this weekend. This move up will be exhausted at the end of teh day look at this chart
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A1805
What are your short targets ?
J
Quote Elliott Wave Principle: “….A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C-wave positions of an A-B-C formation. In double or triple threes (this move up from 865 is a double), they appear only as the FINAL C wave. In all cases they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating EXHAUSTION of the larger movement.”
We have an ending diagonal today. Monday is down. Probably gap thru the weak support levels at 970 and 950.
What then will hold it up? This will be a 3rd wave down (from 1044 peak). Wave 1 was HUGE, this will be bigger.
Short at end of day today!
Afternoon volume not there like in the past few days, but still an hour to go. Could get interesting. Those of you still holding on – good luck!
What the …I turned my head and we’re down 100.
wow! finally, fireworks.
DID YOU SEE THIS? Learn it – live it – love it! The dude has been on a roll. Can’t bail on him now. I’ll have shorts in place. Just mad I did not place them at the trendline break.
Quote Elliott Wave Principle: “….A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C-wave positions of an A-B-C formation. In double or triple threes (this move up from 865 is a double), they appear only as the FINAL C wave. In all cases they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating EXHAUSTION of the larger movement.”
We have an ending diagonal today. Monday is down. Probably gap thru the weak support levels at 970 and 950.
What then will hold it up? This will be a 3rd wave down (from 1044 peak). Wave 1 was HUGE, this will be bigger.
Short at end of day today!
Be the ball Billy. Nanananana…nananananana….nanananana
Shanky, I’m on the same boat with you leavin port… Daneric has been all over it.
I had short positions in at the trendline, but I ended up nickel and diming it and missed a 10% swing in SDS….f%@$#%. Entered in now, tho.
I forgot one of the prime rules of trading: “don’t quibble over eights and quarters”.
Next week will be down. Leeeeets Go!
I’m so pissed I did not enter at the trend break. I’m just not that good. Will be holding my SDS thru rally monday to specific pain limits. Want to see daneric’s chart this weekend. We may get a chance to get in at an even better price!
Craig,
Are you considering taking a short position into the weekend ? I was thinking about it, but not unless we go back to 970-980 level. Almost everyone I know is expecting the market to go down big early next week, so I am wondering if the market can be that easy and predictable ?
I don’t think so. I will look for a short opportunity on Monday. We could make another run at the upper resistance line.
Just consider who are “the everyone you know”… a lot of people here have been ahead of the curve on the mkt movements.
But at the same time, don’t follow the lemmings unless you are comfortable with tthe position, or you’ll second guess yourself out of any potential upside
Based on the 1929 bottom we may close below yesterdays close. 93.50 would be ideal on the spy.
Ideal for what? Tell me more….
Well I forgot I used the dow to compare, not the S&P. I checked the Dow chart and WOW. Exactly the same.
http://api.ning.com/files/X1aOuMruHtIyCDaXNS7VH8jNDOLS2UP7YYMb6y-T*x4Ag*EbLMjlxr6Vuug4jGrnM20Ra8Ie-WkqDI9vJLrp33gRufVdSKZr/Clipboard01.png
I’ve stuck my big toe in SDS.
I think we should remove Daneric to an “undisclosed secure location”! What a resource. Boy, Daneric, you should print out your posts from the various boards and here and put them all together and get a job on Wall Street for $50 million a year. You’re either very lucky, extraordinarily adept, and most likely both.
Say, can we buy a community life insurance policy on Daneric since he is such an asset to the community at large?
Way to go and THANKS A THOUSAND TIMES OVER for sharing your thoughts and analysis.
Wave 1 down from 1044 was a 180 point move. Wave three is never the shortest and usually the longest so there is a good chance MONDAY truly blows up and we head straight to sub 800 SPX .
I have some small short in place. LMT and a small position in SKF.
I want to thank everyone on this board especially Craig and Daneric40..I am new to trading and loss my a(* in the last few weeks…until I found Stocktock , this is the first week that I closed with a nice profit.
Craig I would like to donate…is there a link?
Mimi66
Mimi66,
That’s so great to hear. Congrats. There is a link to Support StockTock on the sidebar of the page, near the top.
Thanks!
Did you hold your short postion on oil from a few weeks back? That was ~ $30 ago
no I didnt…I sold with a small profit. Because I have loss money I am fearful and have
tight stops. I am learning so much from this blog and hope in time I will be as good as
everyone on this board.
Hopefully you stuck with AMR. All of the airlines rebounded hard off that middle support line that was crucial. Boy,was I wrong about that call. I figured LUV would be the leading indicator but this doesn’t seem to trade the same as the other airlines. I also thought we would see some type of bounce in oil but we never did.
Hey Mike…I sold AMR today at a profit (used Daneric40 chart)..sold it close to the trendine. I am not sure if you can use the EW S&P chart but it worked today.
I bought a small position in SDS at 92.50 late this afternoon.
Will we fall to 890 and then bounce to 50 and then begin the final plunge or do we plunge to 800 and then we rally for the next few weeks. The other blogs that I read (not as good as this one) has both of these scenarios.
anybody else notice how $VIX broke the two-day descending trendline & closed above triangle?!!! I feel confident will my (SPY) puts over the weekend
Sorry, something wrong with my keyboard was typing backwards. I meant to make notice of the break of the trend. Find next level of support,rally to resistance then follow through. Textbook.