Comments on: Intraday Commentary ~ 10/16/08

By: stocktalk

stocktalk — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 04:17:02 +0000

How long will this rally last???
I need an opinion on my goog october calls. With the massive run up after hours do you think GOOG will hold its numbers throughout the day or will it start to pull out at the end of the day. GOOG will move with the rest of the market tommorow and I believe it will be the leader of the entire market. Once GOOG starts pulling back the market will pull back. I would like to maximize my profits so I am a little puzzled on where to sell and I dont know if I see anything that points out in the charts. I need some help! P.S that red sox game was ridicoulous.

By: John

John — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 01:21:34 +0000

Craig, I found it on the Social Blog. Thanks…

By: John

John — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 00:57:28 +0000

Hi Craig, Thank you for all you do for us amateurs. I pray for GOD our Fathers continued blessing on you and your family… Question! Did you post the VWAP formula? If so, where is it located? Or better yet can you email it to me at john.sobieraj@verizon.net
Thanks again…John

By: Dan

Dan — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 00:21:10 +0000

I was about to take this trade, but I was watching the action on the SPY at the same time and that was my clue to stay away. A rally like the one that was setting up can take even the dog of the dogs up with it.

By: John

John — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 22:40:04 +0000

So with the 21st and the 23rd coming up, which companies have the most exposure? (Short opportunities) Would be interested in hearing strategies for Tues/Thurs of next week? Maybe just take a position on SKF?

Thoughts?

John

By: pmesdjian

pmesdjian — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:42:12 +0000

Most commodities have fallen at least 50% (corn, wheat, oil, nat gas, copper, zinc, etc). Oil is no different. Sure the moves are a bit overdone, but trust the charts.

When crude makes a turn to the upside, I’ll be buying.

Pete

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:33:53 +0000

I agree, trust the charts.

By: Dan

Dan — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:29:37 +0000

100% Agree

By: Muzie

Muzie — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:28:54 +0000

As for why oil went up and down, it’s pretty irrelevant now. We can make a lot of theories, but we can’t prove any of them. Probably oil went up because, for a time, everybody, (not just hedge funds!!!) really believed we would be running out.

Then if oil goes back up to 150$, people will say “WTF just happened?”. Think it can’t happen? Anything can happen in this market.

As Craig would say “thrust the charts” – and let’s not bother making theories about why things are happening. We can’t know exactly why the trends are occuring. But trends are trends, and reading the charts means reading how human behavior works, and there’s no funky theories needed to see how that works.

By: Muzie

Muzie — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:24:39 +0000

I don’t disagree that hedge funds are too blame in part for what is happening.

But when 100% of every move for the past year has been blamed on them, I just say “Come on!”. I just think all the hedge fund theories are getting too cute. Market goes up, it’s because of hedge funds. Market goes down? Hedge funds again.

My theory? Markets tanked this month because Joe Sixpack panicked and sold everything. Lots of sellers, not a lot of buyers. It’s an old, boring theory that time and time again has shown to be what happens when stock markets crash.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98111-75-billion-in-mutual-fund-redemptions-in-september

This is why the markets tanked in September – see link. No need to get cute with theories of margin calls, options expiration, hedge funds covering CDs, Lehman dumping assets or whatever. Just plain, old, vanilla, reliable, pissing-in-your-pants, get-me-the-fuck-out–of-here-or-I-die PANIC from regular folks that just woke up and are not absolutely panicked there’s a small chance we may head for a depression and all stocks are going to 10% of their previous highs.