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16
Oct
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4:01pm
GOOG reports Q3 $4.92 v $4.75e, Revenue $4.04B v $4.05Be. Stock is trading significantly higher after hours.
4:00pm
What a rally! Didn’t quite make it up to my target. I’m holding overnight. Google just reported…
Also, the TED Spread is down to 407 bps. Nothing to brag about but improvement.
3:16pm
My target for this rally is $955.
3:06pm
ES 10m testing its 200MA (921.30).
3:00pm
ES getting held up at some resistance levels but I’m sticking with it until it violates my stop.
2:51pm
ES 5m: Rally time. Set stops under the neckline.
2:28pm
ES 1-m: Sellers trying to break the pattern. Sell if the shoulder breaks. Not seeing much sign of volume buying, at least not yet. Remember, from failed moves come fast moves. This market will selloff quickly if the pattern breaks.
2:15pm
Trade Alert from Mohan:
Guys/Gals,
There is an intraday H/S on SHLD. The right shoulder is higher than the left with lesser accompanying volume. Therefore, it is not a classic H/S, but still a H/S. Neck at 60. A 1 min close below 59 – the stock could lose 5 pts in a hurry.
Yesterday and today SHLD set a 52 week lows on lower than normal volume. I am expecting higher volume sell-off soon. I am not expecting it to race up 5 points in a hurry. Good risk to reward.
2:08pm
The stakes are high right now. If the inverse H&S pattern works, we should see a 50 point rally in the S&P. If the pattern fails, we should see a sharp selloff. Notice a possible WV pattern that has formed on the 1-minute.
1:56pm
TED spread has improved to 410 bps.
1:36pm
ES 1m: Inverse H&S pattern still looks good. Approaching 2pm…
Experimenting with a magic pen. Not part of TOS. Let me know what you think.
1:00pm
This inverse head and shoulders pattern is something to keep an eye on. It may or may not pan out. Ideally, we would see a break above the neckline near the 2pm time when volume generally comes back into the market. A break above the neckline could yield a rally of a about 50 S&P points.
12:24pm
This right shoulder could move as low as 888 (roughly, if it equals the height of the left shoulder) so keep that in mind for entries and stop points.
12:29pm
ES 1-m: Larger Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern forming? (Martin, you the man!)
12:23pm
ES 10m: Descending 200MA will serve as resistance. Roughly coincides with double top level
12:20pm
This breakout looks legit. Volume picked up on the breakout.
VIX 60m: Double top?
12:14pm
ES 1m: Breakouts from inverse H&S patterns require volume. So does a break above the VWAP. If it holds, the price target is the double top level near $930.
12:07pm
ES 1-min: Just throwing darts at a wall here. Could this still be an inverse H&S forming with a ascending neckline coinciding with the VWAP?
12:03pm
UNG 10m: Up 2.5% while oil is down 6%. I’ve noticed some bullish divergences for what its worth.
11:56am
ES 10-minute: Moving into 20MA resistance (coincides with VWAP). Volume decreasing.
11:53am
ES 1m: We are breaking the neckline, but we never really formed the right shoulder. And the volume is light on this move higher. I don’t have much confidence in the rally but we’ll see what happens at the VWAP.
11:49am
ES 1-minute: Might we form an inverse head and shoulders pattern? (good call out Martin)
11:38am
Crude oil now trading under $69.
11:29am
Gold making new lows under $790.
11:26am
QQQQ 30m: Made a new 52-wk low, no bullish divergences…
11:22am
ES 10m: Potential bottoming candle not reliable – lighter volume than preceding candle
11:13am
ES 15m: Next stop 839?
11:10am
VIX 60m: At least this is beginning to look like a topping pattern. Maybe a double top or a head and shoulders pattern. VIX is above 81.
11:09am
Crude oil trading under $70.
11:02am
The ES has fallen to fresh session lows under 880. Crude oil is falling lower initially after the larger than expected build.
11:00am
Oil Inventory Data: Crude +5.61M v +2.5Me | Gasoline +7M v +3Me | Distillates -453K v +500Ke | Utilization 82.2% v 83.7%e
10:54am
No reason to believe a bounce is coming until buyers show up, which is yet to happen. The volume on the buy side is very low, and the trend remains lower. Using the VIX as an indicator or bullish divergences on the MACD, RSI, Stochastic, or other indicators should only be used as a reversal alert system, but price action and volume are most important.
10:49am
In the past 10 minutes, the VIX made a new high above Friday’s peak. But the market did not make a new low. Doesn’t make much sense to speculate, but perhaps the VIX gets ahead of the market because there are some traders getting long equities and hedging using puts, which raises the VIX while traders are positioning themselves net long. Just a thought…
10:43am
ES 15m: Holding session lows at 880 for now. Next support level is last week’s low at 837.
10:37am
VIX 60m: Moving into double top territory
10:35am
Natural Gas Inventory Data: +79 bcf v expectation of +75 to +85 bcf
Oil Inventory data due out at 11am
10:17am
ES 10m: Fighting, still above session lows, but not seeing much volume on the buy side
10:13am
ES 10m: Breaking down
10:06am
Crude oil is trading under $73
The TED Spread is moving higher again, to 426 bps
VIX 60m: Climbing above 70
10:05am
ES 10-minute testing the 50MA.
10:03am
Gold 60m: Not difficult to see why the stops were triggered
9:58am
October Philadelphia Fed Index: -37.5 v -10.0e
~ Not good data, worst since 1990. Sellers coming into the ES on the number.
9:53am
TED spread has improved to 416 bps. Moving in the right direction… but hardly good.
9:44am
Gold now down more than $40, trading under $800. Looks a a string of stop orders was triggered.
ES 10-minute: Notice the 50MA serving as support. Watch for resistance at the 200MA.
9:36am
Gold has fallen sharply in the past few minutes, down $20 to $918.
9:34am
OK, the gap has been filled. Can we rally from here? Looks like there was some volume buying at the gap fill.
9:33am
Watch for a gap fill to $899 on the SPX.
8:30am
Initial Jobless Claims: 461K v 478Ke.
~ Better than expected… have not seen that in a while.
Good morning.
Craig – I like the majic pen. When I saw your pic I went looking for it on TOS. Obviously did not find it.
Ran a FIB fan from the 1067 high on the ES. Middle trendline hits the tops. Might be worth looking at.
Do me a favor – bring us home in style this afternoon. Drum up some volume.
Technical analysis video on commodity index, S&P 500, and EUR/USD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=892616816&play=1
Pete
Does anyone else think we rally into the close?
October 16th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Absolutely, The question is: “In which direction?”
Guys/Gals,
There is an intraday H/S on SHLD. The right shoulder is higher than the left with lesser accompanying volume. Therefore, it is not a classic H/S, but still a H/S. Neck at 60. A 1 min close below 59 – the stock could lose 5 pts in a hurry.
Yesterday and today SHLD set a 52 week lows on lower than normal volume. I am expecting higher volume sell-off soon. I am not expecting it to race up 5 points in a hurry. Good risk to reward.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Craig,
Can you post this at the top of the thread. I really think that this is a good trading opportunity for the aggressive accounts.
Thanks.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
No prob
October 16th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
I was about to take this trade, but I was watching the action on the SPY at the same time and that was my clue to stay away. A rally like the one that was setting up can take even the dog of the dogs up with it.
On a 5 minute chart you have a descending triangle pattern. I don’t know which direction the market will go but I expect a big move in the last hour of trading.
does this look like consolidATION
AAPL looks like a bear flag…
John
October 16th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Well I was wrong on this one… but I was nimble enough to hop on and ride it up.
Market looks unstable, I’m out of my longs and in cash, it looks like it wants to plunge to 839…kissing the trendline again.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
It looks like when it hits the neckline one more time, she is going to break down completely.
Unless the MM’s can get this thing moving.
Good luck all
No volume on the spikes up….
October 16th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
I agree. It doesn’t look good… unless there is some catalyst.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Speaking of catalyst….
I recall LTCM and Sept 08 expiration… they pulled something out at 3:03 PM – just after OEX trading is closed at 3 PM on Thu.
Massive call buying on OEX all day.
We have to check that..
October 16th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
I see some volume…
October 16th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Is this not the solid, quick spike up? SSO (leveraged, of course) just jumped a whole lot from its range..
October 16th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Do you have a link where we can check OEX call volume for the day? They close at 3 PM today.
GOOG’s action today looks good. Several bounces off its 200MA and climbing. Is this a preclude to its earnings? Looking to see if it can fill its gap at 333.
To me today’s action looks like a much more promising base for a real rally to build on. I did not trust the last rally and sold it out a little early because of this.
Qucik…
can anybody tell me where I can get OEX 100 index options volume?
October 16th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
I am ready to sell my put positions… there could be some catalyst in the offing…
October 16th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
I just looked on fidelity. Volume is very average. Certainly no heavy call buying. Strike at 425 has highest volume at 2.2k with 2.1k open interest.
October 16th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Thanks John
October 16th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Correction the strike is 460, not 425. Regardless, no heavy call buying or put buying out of ordinary for expiration.
Nice bounce off the new resistance level marked by the 10am and 12.30 tops
Hello Craig,
Is it possible to know when a new post has been added to 1 of the previous 65 posts without having to scroll thru each one?
I just did that again for the 3rd time today and find it to be very time consuming.
Would it be better to allow each new post to run consecutively and continuously so all we need to do is look to the bottom of the page for ALL THE NEW ENTRIES?
Just a thought, … What do the rest of you all think about this?
October 16th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
AGREED!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 16th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
The threaded comments keep separate conversations organized. I am looking into whether its possible to setup email notifications.
October 16th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I think it would be best if you could switch it so the newest ‘thread’ was on top of the page… or if you built some kind of META refresh or auto-update into the trading blog
October 16th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Thought of putting the newest thread on the top of the page, but the comment box to type new comments stays on the bottom of the page. There is no flexibility to move it.
And regarding an auto-update… its not going to happen. Unfortunately, StockTock is free because of the small amount of revenue we make on ads. Without page refreshes, we could not support the site.
That’s just the reality of it.
October 16th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I’m not sure if i understand your reasoning on the auto-update. If your ads are per-page view, you can set up the page to META refresh every 5 minutes.
You’ll still get page views that should count in whatever ad structure you have. I would think it would help your net views, as I’m sure there are some people who don’t refresh every 5 minutes, unless they are over-caffeinated or something.
October 16th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Interesting, I will run it by my tech man, Scott. He knows more about that stuff than I do. I think there are restrictions by the ad agencies on auto-refreshes but I will check with him.
Thanks for the idea.
October 16th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Good Idea…
My target for the close is 9300
October 16th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
I better get a damn shout out if I am right! I never get shout outs
I’m gonna hold my longs overnight. Please GOOG don’t disappoint…
Sears (SHLD) did not break the neckline. I closed my ITM puts.
Craig,
Once again.. great call.. Kudos!
Craig, way to out target my target. I hope you are right though!
Downtrendline on 10min starting at SPY 105 has been broken.
Craig,
Are you holding through the close ? It looks likely that we will follow through with the rally tomorrow. Although, I think we will make a new swing high in S&P, 1000 is probably a good level to take profits. We did make a higher low today which is bullish.
October 16th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
I’ll take 1/2 off at $955 and let the rest run for an options ex rally tomorrow.
took half my goog off letting the rest ride playing with house money now
Unbelieveable. Great call Craig. I am along for the ride with stops. I’ll be swinging. Thanks.
GOOG is screaming up. Simply the best.
Hedge funds selling gold to deal with redemptions according to CNBC.
Nice work. Lay off the caps, if you don’t mind.
GOOD JOB!!!
Stocktock has been right on lately. Great job Craig, DE40, Mr Semi Short, and everyone else involved.
I just checked, after hours SPY moving fast, down 5%…. not sure what that means.
This whole “it’s all because of the hedge funds” crap is getting very irritating. Seriously.
At the beginning of the year commodities/oil were up because of “hedge funds speculating”. This was followed by the “hedge funds were squeezing other hedge funds, causing the oil run-up” theory.
Few months ago market was tanking because “hedge funds are piling on the shorts”.
Then in september we had a huge spike because “hudge funds were forced to cover their shorts”.
Now market is tanking again because “hedge funds are forced to meet margin calls and reemptions”.
The next theory I hear is “hedge funds need to sell assets to vocer for CDS”.
This absofuckingly ridiculous. Hedge funds, hedge funds, hedge funds. Hedge funds are the biggest scapegoats in the universe now. EVERYTHING that happens in the market people say is because of “hedge funds”.
Thing is nobody knows squat.
Anyone with me on this??
October 16th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Ok you have posted your argument. Now support it with a reason not to blame hedge funds. I’d be more than willing to be with you on this if there was a valid reason. That valid reason right now for this manipulation is hedge funds or some other large portfolio manager. Was there a valid reason for oil to be up to 150? Why did it get that high? I can understand it falling, because it was way overbought, however why has it gone down 50% in 3 months. Does that make sense?
October 16th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
I don’t disagree that hedge funds are too blame in part for what is happening.
But when 100% of every move for the past year has been blamed on them, I just say “Come on!”. I just think all the hedge fund theories are getting too cute. Market goes up, it’s because of hedge funds. Market goes down? Hedge funds again.
My theory? Markets tanked this month because Joe Sixpack panicked and sold everything. Lots of sellers, not a lot of buyers. It’s an old, boring theory that time and time again has shown to be what happens when stock markets crash.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/98111-75-billion-in-mutual-fund-redemptions-in-september
This is why the markets tanked in September – see link. No need to get cute with theories of margin calls, options expiration, hedge funds covering CDs, Lehman dumping assets or whatever. Just plain, old, vanilla, reliable, pissing-in-your-pants, get-me-the-fuck-out–of-here-or-I-die PANIC from regular folks that just woke up and are not absolutely panicked there’s a small chance we may head for a depression and all stocks are going to 10% of their previous highs.
October 16th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
As for why oil went up and down, it’s pretty irrelevant now. We can make a lot of theories, but we can’t prove any of them. Probably oil went up because, for a time, everybody, (not just hedge funds!!!) really believed we would be running out.
Then if oil goes back up to 150$, people will say “WTF just happened?”. Think it can’t happen? Anything can happen in this market.
As Craig would say “thrust the charts” – and let’s not bother making theories about why things are happening. We can’t know exactly why the trends are occuring. But trends are trends, and reading the charts means reading how human behavior works, and there’s no funky theories needed to see how that works.
October 16th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I agree, trust the charts.
October 16th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Most commodities have fallen at least 50% (corn, wheat, oil, nat gas, copper, zinc, etc). Oil is no different. Sure the moves are a bit overdone, but trust the charts.
When crude makes a turn to the upside, I’ll be buying.
Pete
October 16th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
that is why technicals are the silver lining
October 16th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
100% Agree
So with the 21st and the 23rd coming up, which companies have the most exposure? (Short opportunities) Would be interested in hearing strategies for Tues/Thurs of next week? Maybe just take a position on SKF?
Thoughts?
John
Hi Craig, Thank you for all you do for us amateurs. I pray for GOD our Fathers continued blessing on you and your family… Question! Did you post the VWAP formula? If so, where is it located? Or better yet can you email it to me at john.sobieraj@verizon.net
Thanks again…John
Craig, I found it on the Social Blog. Thanks…
How long will this rally last???
I need an opinion on my goog october calls. With the massive run up after hours do you think GOOG will hold its numbers throughout the day or will it start to pull out at the end of the day. GOOG will move with the rest of the market tommorow and I believe it will be the leader of the entire market. Once GOOG starts pulling back the market will pull back. I would like to maximize my profits so I am a little puzzled on where to sell and I dont know if I see anything that points out in the charts. I need some help! P.S that red sox game was ridicoulous.