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4:03pm
Today, we saw the pullback in the market’s that we called for in Friday’s video. Stay tuned for today’s video.

3:50pm
There’s the 61.8% retracement. We boosted our SSO (L) position up to 10%. We will add on a breakout later this week.

3:43pm
The SPX is just 2 points above the 61.8% Fib retracement level at 1235.

3:32pm
XLF now down more than 4%. Volume light. Holding its 20 moving average on a daily chart.

3:30pm
The ES is having trouble breaking above its descending 20 moving average, now at 1242.

3:17pm
MER and AIG down 10%. MER is not far from its 52-wk closing low at 24.69.

3:00pm
Keep in mind the following earnings reports after the bell: AMGN, CYH, EDS, HIGH, MOS, MTW, SLG, UHS and XL.

2:57pm
This is exactly the kind of action the bulls needed. The market is pulling back on relatively light volume. This should setup a nice opportunity for an S&P long trade. SSO is an leveraged ETF that gets you 2X long the index. We have put on a 5% SSO (L) but are waiting to add to it.

2:40pm
A possible 2:30 reversal taking place. Bullish engulfing candle on XLF. The ES bumping against overhead resistance at its 20 moving average at 1244.50.

2:30pm
Oil closed up $1.50. At the close of the open outcry session, crude was bought and nat gas was sold off. Paulson about to speak on covered bonds to increase mortgage financing.

2:14pm
UNG seeing some accumulation here. XLF near session lows at 20.25.

1:35pm
The S&P is making fresh session lows near 1241.

1:14pm
We just took a 5% position in SSO (L), just to dip our toe in the water.

1:11pm
Bottoming candle on ES 10-minute, but volume too light to trust.

12:57pm
Market making news lows. The SPX has now moved below the 50% retracement level at 1245.80. The next important Fib level is a 61.8% retracement at 1235.10. We will let you know when we start building a long position in this market.

12:07pm
The market is trying to bounce off session lows. I would not try to play this bounce from the long side (except for quick hitting day traders) as a test of 1246 seems very likely in the short-term. Be patient building a long position. Important data comes out Thursday and Friday, and the market may drift until then.

11:51am
IMAX looks interesting on the long side here. Target 8.25 with an exit at 7.86, currently trading at 7.91.

11:35am
The ES moving down to new lows, approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1245.80. We are not in a rush to build a long position in case there is continued downside. If we see a high volume bottoming candle piercing 1246, then it might be worth a shot.

11:19am
The markets have fallen sharply lower, with the ES falling into its session low from earlier this morning at 1250.

11:02am
The ES trying to find support at its 50 moving average at 1253.50.

10:30am
Markets cannot sustain a rally this morning, bu the ES is still above its 20 moving average. Financials have reversed into negative territory.

10:19am
Oil and natural gas trying to bounce off session lows.

10:03am
Oil prices have gone negative.

9:46am
Financials strong this morning. XLF up 1.3%. LEH up more than 8%.

9:35am
S&P attempting to breakout here as oil slumps towards the flat line.

9:20am
The S&P E-Mini Futures (ES) are flat as we begin the week. Oil is higher by about $1 above 124.

12:00am
Good morning. StockTock is calling for continued consolidation or a possible pullback in the S&P early this week. We will look to start building a long position under 1245.80, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement.


Craig

The views, opinions and analysis expressed in this post are strictly those of the author.
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12 Responses to “Intraday Commentary ~ 7/28/08”

  1. Idan Koren says:

    Oil is breaking a downard resistance on the 10 minute.. are you a buyer?

  2. Craig says:

    Seems like a decent risk/reward with a stop under 122.50.

  3. clarke says:

    intra day HnS on UNG?

  4. Idan Koren says:

    how are your views on your XLF as we approach the 20 SMA daily ?

  5. Idan Koren says:

    are you a buyer today on this pull back.. or do you believe we’re testing the 61.8% first, since we had such a huge rally that was uncontained?

    Also.. the XLF is retracing back to the 20 SMA daily.. good buying point there?

  6. Lets see if we can get a 2:30 rally….

  7. AL says:

    The battle is between the QQQQ and the GLD.

  8. Idan Koren says:

    BUY XLF? C? S&P?

  9. Craig says:

    Don’t need to be the first one in here. If you want to dip your toe in, that’s fine.

  10. If we close at the low of the day at the 61.8% retracement on realtively low volume, this should be a bullish set up for tomorrow.

  11. Volumes are relatively light on this pull back, almost every one of the stocks in my core are well below their monthly volume averaga=es.

  12. Kturbin says:

    hey craig,
    You still have your UNG position on?