3:49pm
Remember, INTC reports after the close today. Usually, they report between 4:10 and 4:15pm.
3:44pm
ES has moved lower into its 50 moving average at 1219.
3:30pm
Double top formation on the ES.
3:26pm
Financials seeing some selling pressure here as the XLF goes back into negative territory again.
3:23pm
ES hanging in there above the 200 moving average. The S&P is positive by about a point. A positive close will be a bullish sign and something to build on tomorrow.
3:04pm
Market internals still ugly, with decliners leading advancers 2:1.
2:59pm
Seeing some buyers step up here. Volume picking up some.
2:50pm
Just wanted to point out the NASDAQ’s outperformance today. The S&P is flat, while the NASDAQ is up 26 points, or 1.2%.
2:45pm
The ES is consolidating under its 200 moving average and the table is set for a rally. But the longer buyers hesitate, the more likely it is that the bears take us down again.
2:31pm
Financials seeing some buying here, with the XLF trading higher by more than 1%. The ES is testing the 200 moving average once again.
2:08pm
The XLF is moving back and forth between positive and negative territory. If financials cannot hold onto their gains, this rally is unlikely to have any legs.
1:59pm
The volume is drying up here as we approach the 2:00 hour. 30 minutes left in crude trading, which is currently trading lower by more than $7.
1:32pm
The XLF volume is already greater than its previous highest volume day ever, and its only 1:35. This is another factor supporting the case that a bottom is being put in.
1:23pm
ES pulling back here upon the 1st hit of the 200 moving average. This is to be expected. The volume on the pullback is light so far.
1:03pm
ES now rallying above the 200 moving average.
12:44pm
The ES just made a virtual hit (within 60 cents) of the 200 moving average.
12:32pm
Oil remains weak and financials are holding gains so far. The ES is rallying slowly towards its 200 moving average which sits at 1230.40. The first hit of the 200 should serve as resistance. The Dow and NASDAQ are now positive on the day.
12:02pm
Buying in XLF on decent volume.
12:00pm
The market is rallying toward session highs, being led by a rebound in financials. The XLF is up .8% on the day. WB just moved into positive territory.
11:47am
ES fighting to hold its 20 moving average. Volume light on this pullback. Dead cat bounce in oil, now trading above 139. It’s low today was 136.23.
11:33am
Oil bouncing off the lows, near 139. The ES is pulling back into its 20 moving average at 1214.
11:27am
This selling in oil is significant in its movement and volume. It is trading under 136.50 and cannot seem to bounce. The M top we highlighted in our video is coming to fruition. Big money is rotating out of oil and energy related stocks. Could oil’s top coincide with a stock market bottom? Maybe, but we want to wait for confirmation before taking this market long.
11:06am
Market staging a nice rally here as oil falls apart. Oil trading under 137 with the selling picking up here.
11:03am
Crude now under 141.
10:55am
Crude still falling, now under 143. ES bouncing higher into its 20 moving average at 1213. Volume not particularly strong on ths bounce.
10:45am
Oil selling off hard now below 144. Market attempting to rally off the lows. LEH looks to be setting up for a rally.
10:10am
The SPX bounced off 1200 (1200.44 to be exact).
10:08am
Oil selling off below 145 after Bernanke’s downgrade of the US economy. VIX got as high as 30.79.
10:03am
Bernanke’s comments show that the Fed’s priority is financial stability. The chances of a rate hike in the next 2 meetings is now zero, according to the futures. I think a rate cut may be on the table.
10:00am
Bernanke’s comments released. Market making new lows. VIX now above 30 to 30.14.
9:55am
ES testing the lows 1210.25.
9:53am
XLF just made a fresh session low at 17.09. The VIX has moved up to 29.75.
9:47am
The ES is finding resistance at its 50 moving average at 1218.
9:45am
We are seeing some financials stocks doing ok: WM up 11%, LEH up 5%, STT up 3% after earnings, and GS is near the flat line.
9:41am
Financials struggling near the lows: FRE down 27%, FNM down 20%, NCC down 16%, WB down 12%.
9:36pm
The VIX is at a new high, but still under 30 at 29.46.
9:33am
Financials still getting crushed. XLF just made at new low at 17.28, down more than 2%.
9:07am
The S&P futures (ES) are trading considerably lower to 1217, though off its morning low at 1210.25. Oil is higher by 80 cents, to 146.58, but off its high at 146.73.
9:00am
June PP! came in hot at 1.8% v 1.4% expectation, but stripping out food and energy, it came in at .2% v .3% expectation. This data is tame and may allow the Fed to keep rates low throughout the rest of the year as inflation is not spreading into other areas. USB earnings missed but the revenues beat. STT earnings beat. JNJ earnings beat. GM announced restructuiring plans to boost capital. Bernanke is speaking at 10am, President Bush will speak on housing at 10:20, Paulson speaks 2:15, and INTC reports after the bell.
Hi Craig,
Its been approximately a week now since we are expecting or waiting for a capitulation climax to this selling in the markets..
Well, today could infact be that day. I feel we are seeing some sort of capitulation in Europe and the same was visible in some of the Asian markets.
But the point that I want to make here is that even if we are not seeing a capitulation move down in the markets as a whole, it has definitely happened in the Financials. The way financials are selling off 30-40% in a day is a clear sign of distress selling.
So capitulation is already happening in the sector where the problem actually lies. May be we do not see the capitulation happening in all the sectors and so it may not be reflected in the broader market…
To call a bottom, I think we need to watch capitulation in the Financials instead of waiting for the entire market to collapse and the VIX to spike above 30.
Ravi….
dollar is weak, gold apparently has been making another run for its mid-March high.
I agree with Ravi. The selling in the regional banks over the past few days has approached panic levels whether it is justified or not.
It’s over when goog and MA reach 430 and 222 respectively.
I see bottoming candles on FNM should we be buying here, now that hte vix is in topping levels?
The VIX got as high as 30.79 and the market is now bouncing from the lows. However, I don’t think its safe to call a bottom yet. The volume on this bounce is not great. Better to wait for confirmation.
What’s happening with oil… ?
Craig, can you give a short explanation on the importance of the VIX hitting 30?
The VIX measures implied volatility (or fear) in the market. 30 is a round number figure that many technicians use to signal market bottoms. The VIX hit 30.79 this morning, but must be considered in the context of previous recent lows, where the VIX spiked above 35.
We just had a $10 dive in oil in less than an hour. This is unprecedented. Refiners TSO, VLO, SUN, have swung nicely to the positive. If we can break below that gap up that was created back on June 6, it would indicate a 10% correction in oil for the first time in months, and may siginify the top is finally in.
Is it important that the VIX “CLOSES” above 30? Does it have to happen over consecutive dates? (I know this is not an exact science)
It is not important where the VIX closes. The intraday high is more important as an indicator. And the number of days the VIX remains elevated is also not that important. Market bottoms tend to create an upside down V on the VIX.
craig,
. we have the dollar hitting new lows vs the Euro.
. Oil correcting almost $10 in an unprecedented move.
. The VIX reaching 30.81 intraday
. We have gold approaching a retest of the March high. If this re-test of resistance holds it will be a classic double top.
. The SP500 reached 24% off of its October intraday high. It has also fallen 240 points from May 19 high of 1440 to 1200 in less than two months. BTW- that is neat and tidy 20% retracement to the upside if we return to 1440 at some point…
. There is ‘blood in the streets’ in the world of regional banks.
The pieces are coming together.
Craig. In your video you always point out that we need to go against the crowd. Everyone is waiting for vix to spike (even CNBC is preaching about vix and how important it is to go higher then 30) , stocks dont’ really sell (except financials), they just bounce during the day up/down. How is that different from a crowd opinion?
pgrychah,
That’s an important observation. I’ve been thinking about that and addressed it in yesterday’s Market Outlook: “With so many traders looking for a panic bottom and a spike in the VIX above 30, it is possible we see more of a slow rounded bottom.”
Thank you, Craig. Yesterday action in regional banks is REALLY, REALLY bad for economy. They made loans to small businesses. Without loans economy is doomed.
We can’t call victory just yet, I only bought a small position early this morning. I believe we need to see the Dow jones end green, and to have a confirmation of this push higher tomorrow. Where is the S&P 10 minute descending line at craig?
Idan, this market has not proven anything yet. It has not even broken above its 200 moving average on the ES 10-minute. The descending trendline is above 1250, and this market is still below that at 1228.
I expect some more heavy selling in crude oil before the close
I really like the way the market is pulling back on small volume
I hope we can get the late day rally that we have been getting in the past few days.
SP500 – 200 min ave is at ~1230. Let’s see if we can top it by the close. Today’s open was ~1226. Today’s low was ~1200. A close above today’s open will put a 26 point tail to today’s daily candle. That’s a 2% intraday move on the SP500 as the tail… That would be the largest single day tail to a bottoming candle (that I recall, with the exception of June 6, that was the $11+ oil up day) since the May decline began.
S&P breaking 200 min average, and i think this will help propel the stocks higher, I really want to see the S&P try and break the descending trendline today
Run baby!
Hey Craig,
Is that an inv Head n shoulders on the QQQQ 5 minutes, 2 day chart. We are just above the neckline?
Yes definetly
Clark, I don’t see that at all. Unless the right shoulder has not formed yet.
Ok . It is also possible I am seeing things, given I have been expecting a rally since a week now.
Hi Craig,
I think it would be bullish if the vix closed below it upper bollinger band of 27.84. That might be a buy signal for short term rally. Dow could rally higher from hear into upper aspect of down trend channel possibly 11800 to 12000. This could be the summer rally.. Then big move down in to dow 10000 or 9500 range for capitulation. VIX of 40.
Thanks
SP500 has not been able to put in more than a 30 point rally off every fresh low during this entire decline since May.
INTC formed head and shoulders on 24 years monthly chart.
VIX finished down 3.0-3.5 from the daily high.
BAC yields 13.6% . If they turn around and cut the dividend in half, that’s 7.8% .
Thats 6.8% … for BAC