LIVE TRADING (on video) – 1pm EST/ 6pm GMT EVERYDAY!

12:01am
Futures are slightly down but basically flat. I don’t see a big move happening anytime soon. I think $110 at least is going to hit before we get a stronger bounce, and there’s a chance for us to fall all the way to $109.12.

The stocks that might get some strong action, and will be looked at in detail soon:
AAPL, GS, XLF, FSLR. We will look at all those charts in the LIVE TRADING (on video) at 1PM EST.

VIDEO UPDATE ~ By Chris!

Leave your thoughts on the blog to the following article:

Technicals vs. Fundamentals: Which are Best When Trading Crude Oil and Natural Gas?

By Elliott Wave International

If “fundamentals” drive trend changes in financial markets, then shouldn’t the same factors have consistent effects on prices? For example: Positive economic data should ignite a rally, while negative news should initiate decline. In the real world, though, this is hardly the case. Just read these four oil price headlines from July 22 and 23. (And get FREE access to EWI’s latest energy market forecasts!) Read more.

LIVE TRADING  (on video) CONTINUES at 3:30PM EST/10:30PM GMT

2:31pm
GS still trading in a triangle formation after hitting the prior low level (now resistance). If we break resistance of the triangle, you should go long. If we break support you should go short. I am however, more bullish on GS than bearish (i’m hoping we break out so I can buy it).

1:48pm
GOOG 10 minute is starting to look more toppish as we broke down a small H&S formation, remember that 483.51 is the 38.2% retrace of the whole rally we had since the lows of 2008. So that’s some support (we have to break) before i go short.

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

2:10pm
XLF  INVERSE H&S formation on the daily might be getting ready to complete itself. We opened right around the neckline today and I think it’s worth going long once we do break that neckline. I am a believer that we do break higher but people wanting to short at 14.95-15.00 make sure you have a stop very tightly above 15.05:

Today at 1PM EST/ 6pm GMT – LIVE TRADING CONTINUES –  Get Idan’s thoughts on the market.

Idan Koren

12:56pm
GOOG daily today confirming a breakout of a descending (blue) resistance line that has held it strongly lower. With that I become more bullish on GOOG into the next week or so:

If we close back below 490.75 today i’ll become more bearish.

11:46am
GS 60 minutes showing signs of a triangle formation. The resistance of my triangle formation is very clear. The support however, could either be where i drew it, or can be a little higher using a less steep line that touches the closes of the candles rather than the lows. Usually this pattern after a massive rally is very bullish, but i recommend playing either side once the triangle breaks:

11:43am
I do expect some weakness for a few days as we hit the 200 SMA daily and the 50% retrace… we will need to close beneath the two for me to continue to believe that we will have weakness into tomorrow. Any level below 111.55 should be good for the bears today.

Woo:
3:00 am EST

Here is an update on the overall market from the Leveraged ETF Pro subscription section:

SPX 1 year:

As I mentioned in the intraday commentary, we need to watch the bullish movement on this very carefully. If you look at the RSI we are above a trend line that has held for the last 3 months. We broke above the 200ma which is at 1113.69. We can also see further bullish action on the 6 month chart.

SPX 6 month:

We can see that the breakout that has happened on a number of levels on the 6 month chart as well. The RSI broke a trend line at the same time that we broke out of the wedge that was forming a little below 1100. We’re above a number of support areas. Also you can see the fibs of the 3 wave from 1170s down to 1010s, and we are above the 61% retrace which is also a bullish indicator. The RSI is a little high, but we’ve seen near 80 RSI’s on this chart a number of times. The projection to 1136 is also playing out very nicely with moves in between and bouncing off of fibs at 10588, 1073, and 1088. After a bounce at 1088, we had a strong move north, which is also a bullish sign. The only chance the bears currently have of saving the market from rushing north towards the 1130s and higher is to create a new correction wave, draw out the market sideways a few days, till the waves correct, and then move south. However, this would take a lot of work to do, and the path of least resistance is currently north. We need to watch out for this though. If we really are headed towards 1136, there is a chance we could move sideways a bit more in between 1106-1118. Either way, the market bias is clearly bullish for now, and I’d look for a break under 1106 to at least get a bit of momentum towards the south. However, with so many trend lines, ma’s and fibs as support under here, we really need a break under 1065 to have a strong bearish bias again.

Idan:

12:01am
Here’s the daily chart of the SPY below. Two major things to note are the following:
1. We broke out of the descending channel on thursday (i pointed that out as a buying day).
2. We hit the daily 200 SMA and the 50% retracement today (could be a day for selling pressure to begin).

I still believe we can rally as high as 115 before we reverse, but what are your thoughts?

 Loading ...

Woo:

SPX 1 month:

There’s a break on the 1 month chart trend lines. You can consider a short if we break back below that line, but I wouldn’t go short at all until then.

SPX 6 month chart:

I would like to see the market above 1106. With the RSI breaking north, the market is still bullish, and unless we open under that RSI, there’s a good chance we could break north of 1106, then 1111. If this happens we’re looking at a lot more bullishness to come.

Woo:

2:18 pm EST

SPX 1 month

Let’s see if it can break.

FSLR:

I like it. I put a ring on it.

Idan

12:30pm
I am very surprised that ANY bank in europe actually failed this rather lenient stress test. It’s important to read between the lines, and while most of the huge banks DID NOT fail the stress test, quite a few of the smaller ones have, especially in spain. And of course, these tests assumed no sovereign default risk, which i think is bogus.

11:58am
An interesting read:

Quadrillion Dollar Debt: ‘Day of Reckoning’ Looms
What Will Happen as $1,000,000,000,000,000 in Global Debt Winds Down?
By Elliott Wave International

A thousand trillion in debt can’t be wished away or swept under the rug. No one can “forgive” the debt. The consequences of unwinding this debt could be as massive as the dollar figure itself… Read more.

11:52am
Market moving up slowly here, this is an indication that we can continue to move even higher on monday. Currently, we are bound by that ascending channel support (now resistance) and it’ll be interesting to see if the bears shove us down at the end of the day or let the bulls rally us back into that channel. I’m bullish as long as we stay above 108.60 into monday:

Tze
9:47 am

A good and concise summary of what July has been like for the markets.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com

The month of July has been a roller coaster of a month. Since options expiration ended on July 16th the up and down action has been outright violent. One hundred point moves on the Dow Jones Industrial Average have become common over the past week. This morning the major stock market indexes are surging higher to start the day on the back of positive European data. It has been a long time since the markets have reacted positive to anything out of Europe.

This morning it is important to note that the U.S. Dollar Index is trading down sharply. In my opinion this is the real catalyst for the move higher today in the stock indexes. Remember when the dollar declines the major stock indexes will inflate. Today the market rally is broad based as most sectors are trading higher.

Technology stocks seem to be the leading group as Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) is trading higher by 2.64 to $38.80. F5 Networks Inc (NASDAQ:FFIV) is also soaring higher by 8.75 to $81.87 after a positive earnings report. F5 Networks Inc should have daily chart resistance around the $82.50 – $83.00 area. Baidu Inc (NASDAQ:BIDU) is also trading higher by 1.88 to $75.15 after a positive reaction to earnings.

July has been one of the most volatile months in quite a while. This type of choppy action is likely to continue as the battle between the bulls and bears is just heating up. Every time the sky looks clear the storm clouds come rolling in. The opposite case can be made as almost every sell off or decline seems to reverse higher the next day. Today is a perfect example as the markets are trading sharply higher after yesterday’s sharp downside reversal. Take this month in stride as July has been a month to remember.

Tze

9:44 am

Good EW update from Milen. He posted this on FocalEquity Social.

This is the direct link to his blog:

http://oneelliottwavetrader.blogspot.com/

Woo:

2:38 pm EST

SPX 6 month:

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

3:30pm
I want to end below 106.80 for more conviction into tomorrow on the SPY… just bought some SRS at 27.05 with a stop at 26.92, We’ll see where that goes

——3:40pm, moved stop up to 27.10, to make sure i’m making a profit.

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

4:10pm
Market ends RIGHT at the 1085 resistance, but nonetheless we end at the highs of the day confirming strength from the bulls. We will see if we pull back from this levels on the ES.

2:10pm
For those people who went long MMM based on my live trading earlier today at 81.39 (3minute chart below). My stop is at 81.90 currently, and i’m about to get stopped out (with 0.6%+). If you want to take more risk and hope for more reward i’d put the stop in the 81.70 level.

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

LIVE TRADING VIDEO: 1:00pm EST/6:00pm GMT

2:11pm
On the SPY 1 minute it looks like we are forming a higher low at 106.70 in

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

Today we look at the SPY and try to reason what friday’s sell off meant to the markets. While we still don’t believe that one day breaks the rally trend of the last week, a break of 106.10 on the SPY might.
We look at some more important levels in the SPY and possible trends in AAPL and AMZN as well as the GS action.